Compared with Western European countries, where renewables account for more than 30 percent of heating systems, the share in Poland is only around 12 percent. These figures confirm that the country is still at the very beginning of the transformation process. Modernization is required not only in generation sources but also in distribution and transmission networks, as well as installations at end users’ premises. The Polish District Heating Association (PTEC) estimates that the cost of the transition could reach as much as PLN 466 billion by 2050, but only such investments will allow Poland to meet EU climate targets.
“According to data from the Energy Regulatory Office, more than 60 percent of the generation mix in heating still comes from coal. By comparison, gas or renewable energy sources each account for around 10 percent, so the disparity is significant,” said Monika Gruźlewska, director of the Polish District Heating Association, in an interview with Newseria.
According to the Energy Regulatory Office and the European Commission, Poland remains one of the most emission-intensive heating markets in the EU. In Western Europe, the share of renewables in heating systems already exceeds 30 percent, while in Poland it is around 12 percent. Another major challenge is the structure of the networks – more than 23,000 kilometers are still high-temperature systems, which require costly modernization in order to integrate low-temperature sources such as heat pumps or waste heat.
“Taking into account both the condition of the infrastructure – that is, heating networks – and generation sources, we can say that Poland is at an early stage of the transition. Of course, the transformation is underway, and there is momentum in the sector when it comes to new investments. However, looking at the timetable for transformation and the targets arising from EU regulations, it is clear that we are only at the beginning of a major shift,” Gruźlewska explained.
The scale of upcoming spending in the sector is enormous. According to PTEC analyses, the cost of the transformation by 2050, depending on the scenario, could range from PLN 299 billion to PLN 466 billion.
“This huge sum covers not only the transformation of generation sources, but also district heating networks and consumer-side installations – the infrastructure located at end users’ premises,” the PTEC director added.
Under the EU Energy Efficiency Directive (EED), member states are required to gradually transform their heating systems into so-called efficient systems, based on cogeneration and an increasing share of renewables. After 2035, the share of renewable and waste heat in the mix is expected to rise sharply.
“In this context, district heating companies must implement investments that comply with the definition of an efficient system. This means that already today, key decisions are being made regarding the transformation and the final generation mix in specific locations, since this will determine whether transformation goals can be met,” Gruźlewska pointed out.
PTEC’s analyses indicate that integrating the electricity and heating sectors – so-called sector coupling – will help meet the requirements of the EU Fit for 55 package. Key elements include cogeneration (the simultaneous production of electricity and heat) and Power-to-Heat technologies, which allow surplus renewable energy in the national electricity system to be converted into heat. This improves primary energy efficiency and at the same time reduces greenhouse gas emissions.
“The Polish District Heating Association recently published a report analyzing different transformation scenarios. We focused mainly on the concept of sector coupling, meaning the integration of the power and heating sectors. Our expert analyses show that the most cost-optimal generation mix for the end consumer, while at the same time allowing companies to meet the definition of an efficient system, includes cogeneration units producing electricity and heat, but also electrode boilers, heat pumps, and biomass units. The entire system should be supported with heat storage,” Gruźlewska stressed.
The advantage of sector coupling lies in the availability of technologies such as gas cogeneration, heat pumps, electric boilers, heat storage, and smart demand-side management systems. According to PTEC’s calculations, the variable cost of heat production under optimal operation of cogeneration units and electric heat sources is PLN 30/GJ. For coal-based scenarios, this value was 16 percent higher, while in a variant without cogeneration it was 143 percent higher.
Experts at PTEC emphasize that thanks to integration with the electricity sector, the heating industry can act as a stabilizer of the entire energy system – consuming surplus cheap electricity when available and relieving the National Power System (KSE) at peak demand. This not only increases security but also lowers household bills.
“By using cogeneration units, we can optimize heat prices. At the same time, if we employ Power-to-Heat technology, by leveraging fluctuations in electricity market prices, we can further optimize costs for end consumers of heat,” Gruźlewska explained.
