The value of transactions in the private debt market in Central Europe is expected to double over the next five years, according to experts from Baker McKenzie. A revival in the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) market and continued economic growth are likely to drive further expansion. Poland currently accounts for 85% of all private debt transactions in the region.
Between 2020 and 2024, the private debt market in Central Europe grew at an average annual rate of 18%. From the beginning of 2020 to the first quarter of 2025, a total of 235 private debt transactions were concluded, valued at around €1.5–2 billion, according to data from Deloitte. Of these, 200 transactions took place in Poland, with most carried out by local market players. Only 19 transactions were attributed to global funds. Baker McKenzie’s experts note that the private debt market is on an upward trajectory and is expected to maintain its current pace of growth in the coming years.
“In discussions with our clients, we highlight Poland as an important and forward-looking market,” said Ben Bierwirth, Partner at Baker McKenzie London. “We are watching the recent wave of transactions with great interest and expect that as the M&A market picks up, more private debt deals will follow.”
Poland Strengthens Its Position as a Banking Alternative
Poland’s private debt market has established itself as a viable alternative to traditional bank financing. Despite higher borrowing costs, companies are increasingly choosing this form of funding due to greater flexibility in collateral and repayment terms, tailored to their specific business needs.
Market developments in Poland are also influenced by global trends, particularly the growing collaboration between banks and private debt funds. Rather than competing, the two sectors are forming complex joint financing structures, offering companies comprehensive funding solutions.
“Banks and private debt providers are increasingly cooperating through hybrid structures,” explained Jakub Czerka, Senior Associate in the Banking & Finance team at Baker McKenzie Warsaw. “Their shared goal is to identify niche markets and offer complementary financing products to borrowers.”
Transaction Scale and Market Maturity
Most transactions executed by local funds fall within the €2–5 million range, while international funds typically invest €10 million or more, with many transactions exceeding €50 million. Increasingly, larger-scale transactions—valued between €100 million and €200 million—are also appearing on the market.
In parallel with the growth of private debt, the Polish corporate bond market is also developing rapidly. A recent example is the €850 million senior bond issuance by logistics firm InPost.
“The InPost transaction incorporated flexible mechanisms and security structures that until recently were seen only in the more advanced Western European markets,” said Katarzyna Grodziewicz, Counsel in the Capital Markets team at Baker McKenzie Warsaw. “Such deals reflect the evolution and growing maturity of the Polish market.”
Strong Link Between Private Debt and Economic Growth
According to Baker McKenzie, the private debt market is positively correlated with economic growth, and the anticipated M&A recovery will further accelerate this trend in the coming years.
“The rebound in M&A activity and companies’ growing capital needs will be the main drivers of private debt market growth in the years ahead,” emphasized Ben Bierwirth. “The past few years have been relatively calm, but there is now a large pool of capital waiting to be deployed.”
Source: CEO.com.pl – Private Debt in Central Europe to Double in Value by 2030, Poland Leads the Market
