Warsaw and Poznań were the only major Polish cities in February where the average price per square meter of new apartments offered by developers increased. In the cities of the Upper Silesian–Zagłębie Metropolis, the average price declined, while in the remaining metropolitan areas it remained at January’s level, according to preliminary BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl figures.
“PLN 20,000 per square meter in Warsaw is no longer science fiction. If developers continue launching extremely expensive apartments while simultaneously reducing the supply of relatively affordable ones, this threshold may be exceeded as early as the first half of the year,” says Marek Wielgo, an expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
He recalls that in January the average price per square meter of developer-offered apartments in Warsaw rose by 4%, surpassing PLN 19,000. At that time, projects such as Liberty Tower entered the market, with prices ranging from PLN 29,900 to PLN 45,000 per square meter. In February, two even more expensive developments were launched, although with a much smaller number of units. In the first project, prices ranged from PLN 28,000 to PLN 54,000 per square meter, while in the second – positioned as a symbol of luxury – they ranged from PLN 54,600 to PLN 80,400 per square meter. The latter is being developed in Warsaw’s Wola district by Monting Development, co-owned by Robert Lewandowski.
As a result, preliminary BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl data show that the average price per square meter across all apartments offered by Warsaw developers increased by 1% in February, approaching PLN 19,400.
Marek Wielgo notes that for a similar reason – the inflow of higher-priced developments – new apartment prices in Poznań also rose by 1%. In that city, a development with prices ranging from PLN 15,300 to PLN 24,500 per square meter pushed the average above the PLN 14,000 threshold.
However, not all developers focused on premium projects aimed at very affluent buyers. In the cities of the Upper Silesian–Zagłębie Metropolis, relatively affordable apartments entered the market in sufficient numbers to drive the average price per square meter down by 1%, to just under PLN 11,300.
In the remaining metropolitan areas, February brought price stability. In the Tri-City, the average price per square meter held steady at PLN 17,700; in Kraków, at PLN 16,900; in Wrocław, at just under PLN 15,300; and in Łódź, at PLN 11,500.
On a year-on-year basis, Łódź was the only major city in February where the average price per square meter of new apartments remained unchanged. In the cities of the Upper Silesian–Zagłębie Metropolis, the increase amounted to just 1%.
The RynekPierwotny.pl expert emphasizes that both of these metropolitan areas are experiencing an oversupply of apartments. At the current sales pace, it would take more than two years to absorb the entire available stock.
In the other major cities, the average price per square meter of new apartments in February was higher than a year earlier: by 3% in Kraków and Wrocław, by 4% in Poznań, by 8% in the Tri-City, and by 9% in Warsaw.
Marek Wielgo points out that Warsaw developers had nearly 5,000 apartments priced above PLN 20,000 per square meter in their February offering. Their number increased by more than 20% over the first two months of the year, and their share of total supply rose from 24% to 29%.
At the same time, the availability of more affordable apartments – priced at up to PLN 15,000 per square meter – deteriorated this year. According to BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl, the supply of such units, totaling just under 5,100 at the end of February, declined by 8%, and their share in total offerings fell from 33% to just under 30%.
“The housing market situation is dynamic. It is worth monitoring price trends in order to make purchase decisions based on data rather than emotions, which were further stirred in February by the ‘release’ of transaction prices from the government Property Price Register,” comments Marek Wielgo of RynekPierwotny.pl.
