Despite the declining demand for apartments following the expiration of the “Safe Credit 2%” program, developers continue to initiate new investments. The result is a large and, in some cities, record-high supply of new apartments. Experts from RynekPierwotny.pl summarized the housing market performance in 2024 across Poland’s largest cities.
“December marked a stagnant period for the housing markets in major cities, but the entire fourth quarter brought a slight, yet noticeable, increase in new apartment sales, which developers had been expecting. Promotional bonuses and selective price reductions introduced by some companies seem to have helped, alongside the introduction of popular-segment apartments,” explains Marek Wielgo, an expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
Sales Figures and Market Trends
Data from BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl reveal that in the fourth quarter of 2024, developers in Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, the Tri-City (Gdańsk, Gdynia, Sopot), Łódź, Poznań, and the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolis found buyers for approximately 10,800 apartments. This marks a 4% increase compared to the third quarter but a 16% and 29% decline compared to the second and first quarters, respectively. Overall, 2024 recorded a 26% drop in sales compared to 2023.
While the situation varied across metropolises, the first quarter was consistently the busiest for developers, thanks to agreements with beneficiaries of the “Safe Credit 2%” program, which ended in late 2023. Following this, developer offices experienced a noticeable decline in activity. Besides the limited availability of housing loans under standard market conditions, many potential buyers delayed their decisions, anticipating price drops or awaiting more favorable loan terms or a new government support program, such as “#StartHousingLoan,” which was eventually abandoned.
Divergent Trends Across Cities
“The third quarter saw the fewest agreements in most cities, except Kraków, where developers introduced nearly 3,500 new apartments—a six-year quarterly record. Many of these apartments were offered at relatively moderate prices,” says Wielgo.
Kraków, however, faced a 15% sales slump in the fourth quarter, contrasting with significant growth in the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolis (+25%), Poznań (+23%), and Łódź (+13%). Buyers in these cities realized that postponing purchase decisions no longer made sense, especially as the supply of affordable apartments continued to shrink despite an overall increase in available options.
Notably, Łódź ended 2024 on a positive note, with developers closing approximately 4,700 sales agreements—the best performance in the city’s history. Similarly, the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolis recorded its second-best year after 2023, buoyed by the now-defunct “Safe Credit 2%.” Poznań also avoided a market collapse.
Affordability and Pricing Disparities
A common factor in Łódź, Poznań, and the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolis is affordability; apartments in these cities are among the cheapest per square meter. Conversely, in pricier markets like Kraków, Warsaw, and Wrocław, demand dropped significantly. Kraków’s 2024 sales were the weakest in six years, while Warsaw and Wrocław fared slightly better than in the credit crisis of 2022.
“Apartment prices have become prohibitively high for credit buyers, and demand from affluent cash buyers has dwindled,” comments Wielgo. Developers seem to have adapted by slightly reducing prices. In Q4, Warsaw saw a 1% drop in average price per square meter, while prices in Kraków, Wrocław, and Poznań stabilized due to the influx of affordable apartments.
Supply Boom and Record Inventory Levels
Developers introduced a record 19,700 new apartments in the first quarter of 2024 across the seven major cities. While this pace slowed in Q2 and Q3, activity rebounded in Q4, with 15,100 new units hitting the market. Despite dwindling demand, developers remain optimistic due to Poland’s robust economy and the prospect of interest rate cuts.
By the end of 2024, the inventory in Warsaw reached nearly 15,800 apartments, nearing the record set in May 2019. Similarly, Kraków, Wrocław, and the Tri-City recorded near-record supplies. Cities like Łódź, Poznań, and the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolis saw unprecedented inventory levels, surpassing sales figures.
Pricing Trends: A Focus on Affordable Segments
Though the availability of apartments increased in 2024, the number of affordable units decreased significantly. For example, in Warsaw, apartments priced below 10,000 PLN/m² dwindled from 317 to just 100 by year-end. In Kraków, such units fell from 80 to fewer than 40. The situation was similar in Łódź and Wrocław, with affordable options shrinking considerably. However, the Upper Silesian-Dąbrowa Metropolis stood out as the only city where affordable options grew slightly.
Interestingly, while prices for premium apartments stabilized, the cheapest segments saw the highest price hikes. For instance, in Warsaw, the price threshold for the bottom 25% of apartments rose by 8% year-over-year, while the top 25% saw only a marginal 1% increase.
Conclusion
In 2024, Poland’s housing market experienced a stabilization of premium apartment prices and significant increases in the affordable segment. Developers adjusted by introducing more popular-segment apartments, catering to buyers with standard housing loans. While Kraków and Warsaw saw growing inventories of mid-range apartments, cities like Łódź and Poznań reached historic highs in sales and supply.
As interest rates potentially drop, 2025 could bring further shifts in Poland’s dynamic housing market.
Author: Marek Wielgo, Expert at RynekPierwotny.pl and GetHome.pl
Source: ManagerPlus