The dynamics of price growth continue to rise. In October, prices on store shelves were 5.4% higher than a year earlier.
Prices in shops are consistently on the rise. According to an analysis of over 86,000 retail prices, purchases in October increased in average by 5.4% YoY. In previous months, rising YoY increases were observed, but they never reached 5% YoY. This time, out of the 17 monitored categories, a whopping 16 saw an increase. Vegetables saw the highest price hike, with a 11.1% YoY increase. Second were sweets and desserts, which had a two-digit increase of 10.4% YoY. In the TOP5 of the most rapidly increasing categories, fruits are also seen with a YoY increase of 9.9%, bulk products – 7.8%, alongside dairy – 7.2%. Across the entire ranking, personal hygiene products saw the least increase – 0.1% YoY. Meanwhile, animal food was the only category to record a decrease, with a result of -0.4% YoY.
As the latest report titled “PRICE INDEX IN RETAIL SHOPS”, authored by UCE RESEARCH and WSB University Merito, suggests, daily shopping in October (including food, non-alcoholic and alcoholic drinks and other assortment, e.g., household chemicals or products for children) became on average 5.4% more expensive YoY. This increase is greater than the one calculated (according to the same methodology) in September – 4.9%, and in August – 4.3%. Thus, it is evident that prices in stores are constantly growing. Last month, of the 17 monitored categories, 14 recorded a single-digit increase, and in September – 13. Furthermore, 2 segments recently recorded double-digit increases, just like before. In addition, there was only one decrease in October, while a month earlier 2 categories decreased.
“Currently, Poland has one of the highest inflation rates in Europe. This situation is a result of a significant increase in energy prices and a lack of actions to support businesses on one hand, and to slow down inflation on the other. Therefore, most product categories are getting more expensive,” explains Dr. Artur Fiks from the WSB University Merito.
In October, vegetables saw the highest price increase, at 11.1% YoY. In September, they were also the highest-priced, albeit prices had increased by 10.8% YoY. – “The supply of vegetables is significantly reduced due to anomalous weather. Therefore, they are imported to a large extent from abroad, and their prices are affected by factors such as the value of the zloty and transportation costs. I would expect further price increases in this category,” comments Dr. Engineer Anna Motylska-Kuźma from the University of Lower Silesia DSW.
In second place in the ranking are sweets and desserts with an increase of 10.4% YoY. In September, they were fourth in the entire ranking and increased by 8.6% YoY. “Sweets have been at the forefront of increasing products for quite some time, due to the rising prices of semi-finished products used in their production. In the last three months, one of the main reasons for the increase has been a jump in sugar prices by about 20%, which could not be ignored by producers in determining prices,” notes Dr. Artur Fiks.
Also part of the top 3 increases are fruits with an average YoY increase of 9.9%. In September, they were in second place with an increase of 10.1% YoY. – “Weather conditions, which prevailed this year throughout Europe and beyond, have a huge impact on fruit prices, just like vegetables. The overall situation indicates rather a maintenance of high prices in this category, and even considerable increases, especially in the last months of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025,” adds Dr. Engineer Anna Motylska-Kuźma.
Bulk products (sugar, flour, salt, etc.) came fourth in the ranking, they increased by 7.8% YoY. In September, this category saw a decrease. – “Here, the change comes as no surprise. The increase in the prices of semi-finished products, eg wheat by about 6% in the last 3 months, was significant,” adds an expert from WSB University Merito.
The October TOP5 of the fastest-growing categories ends with dairy products, which saw an increase of 7.2% YoY. Previously, this category was much closer the TOP10, with an increase of 4.4% YoY. – “The price dynamics of dairy products were under the pressure of decreased supply, both due to limited imports from our eastern border and weather conditions. Moreover, Poland is slowly becoming the leader in milk production. A reduced supply to the domestic market results in a slow price increase observed in stores,” the expert explains.
Beyond the TOP5, the ranking also shows fats with a 6.9% YoY increase. However, they previously increased by 3.8% YoY. “The year 2024 definitely brought smaller crops of oilseed grains than 2023. This had to translate into a change in the dynamics of fat product prices from decreasing in the first half of this year to increasingly growing,” the expert from the University of Lower Silesia DSW points out.
Further down the ranking are stimulants (ie tea, coffee, beer, vodka) and non-alcoholic beverages with respective increases of 6.4% and 6.3% YoY. – “Only some stimulants are produced by Polish manufacturers. As a result, price increases on global markets are quickly felt by us. For example, in the last 5 months, coffee has become almost 30% more expensive, which greatly affected the entire category. Meanwhile, the increase in non-alcoholic beverage prices has been hampered by falling temperatures. Nevertheless, the rise in energy charges and transport costs during possible negative temperatures will still push up the prices of such products,” predicts Dr. Artur Fiks.
In addition, categories that saw increases YoY were food additives – 5.1%, fish – 4.9%, bread – 4.8%, meat – 4.3%, as well as sausages – 2.1%. – “The rise in energy charges significantly affects the prices in these categories, and as a result – it increases production and storage costs. The importance of increasing semi-finished product costs is also evident. For example, vegetables for food additives and wheat for bread. The increase in meat and sausage prices is mainly influenced by increasing livestock costs. Demand and price relationships are also an important factor, especially for fish,” analyzes an expert from WSB University Merito.
Among the slightly more expensive categories, products for children can be seen with a YoY increase of 1.5%, as well as household chemicals at 1.2%. On the other hand, personal hygiene products increased the least in the entire ranking – only by 0.1% YoY. – “At the beginning of the year, products for children saw a double-digit price increase. But fuels for further increases, such as subsequent social transfers related to parenting, have become exhausted. The same is the case with personal hygiene products. After the turbulent first half of this year, prices have stabilized. The market does not provide impulses for increases. Meanwhile, increases in household chemical prices have significantly slowed down due to the high base, i.e., strong increases in 2023”, says Dr. Engineer Anna Motylska-Kuźma.
Moreover, the ranking shows that only pet food saw a small decrease, i.e. -0.4% YoY. – “Their prices are relatively unstable compared to other categories. In recent months, we have seen both decreases and increases in pet food prices. Therefore, the jump in energy costs and semi-finished products is not particularly important here. This may be due to strong competition in the market. Individual producers are looking for a price level that will ensure optimal sales,” summarizes Dr. Artur Fiks from WSB University Merito.
Description of the research method
Data comes from the cyclical report entitled “PRICE INDEX IN RETAIL SHOPS”(produced every month for almost 7 years), authored by UCE RESEARCH and WSB University Merito (formerly Higher Banking Schools). The analysis shows the average price value, noted month by month and year by year. In its latest version, the results from October 2024 were compared with the corresponding period in 2023. It concerned 17 categories and over 100 most commonly chosen by consumers everyday use products. In total, over 86,000 retail prices from almost 41,000 stores belonging to 60 commercial networks were compared. The study covered all discounters, hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience chain stores and cash&carry on the market, reaching a majority of consumers in Poland with their offer.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/ceny-w-sklepach-pazdziernik-zakonczyl-sie-wzrostem-o-54-r-r-92505
