An analysis of more than 101,000 retail prices from nearly 48,000 stores shows that the period of steep price increases is increasingly fading. In October, everyday shopping items purchased by Poles — including food, household chemicals and products for children — became on average 4.1% more expensive year-on-year. In September, the increase was 4.9%, and in August — 5.1% y/y. Food prices alone are also rising more slowly than before, and more slowly than all other analysed categories. In October, food prices increased 3.6% y/y, compared with 4.1% in September and 4.3% in August. In addition, the latest data shows that 4 of the 17 analysed product categories recorded year-on-year declines — compared with 3 in September and 4 in August. However, prices of the most frequently purchased products remain higher than headline inflation. The authors of the report also predict a renewed acceleration of price increases in the coming months.
The latest edition of the cyclical report “PRICE INDEX IN RETAIL STORES”, prepared by UCE RESEARCH and WSB Merito Universities, shows that in October, everyday purchases in Poland became on average 4.1% more expensive year-on-year. The analysis covered 17 categories including food, non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages, household chemicals and children’s products. According to the same methodology, the year-on-year increase was 4.9% in September and 5.1% in August — indicating a clear slowdown in store price growth.
“This trend is primarily due to cheaper crude oil on global markets and the strong Polish złoty. Although fuel and oil prices rose slightly compared to September, they are significantly lower than in October 2024, which affects overall price levels. Favourable weather conditions also contributed to higher harvest volumes, causing products on store shelves to rise more slowly than a year ago,”
says Dr. Eng. Anna Motylska-Kuźma from the University of Lower Silesia (DSW) in Wrocław.
However, according to Dr. Agnieszka Gawlik from WSB Merito University, the pace of price increases in stores is likely to rise again in the coming months. She attributes this not only to seasonally higher holiday and New Year demand, but also to rising fixed costs for producers and retailers. Analysts from UCE RESEARCH share this view:
“Higher electricity prices will increase production costs. Planned excise tax hikes on alcohol will raise the prices of high-proof beverages. An increase in the sugar tax will affect the cost of sweetened drinks and some food products. Additionally, higher social security and health insurance contributions for entrepreneurs may lead to passing part of these costs onto consumers. Price pressures will therefore continue into early 2026,”
explains Dr. Gawlik.
Food Prices Rising More Slowly
In October, food prices increased 3.6% y/y, compared with 4.1% in September and 4.3% in August — also showing a downward trend. Food inflation remains below the overall index covering all categories, and the gap continues to narrow.
“Food is no longer the main driver of overall price increases, which is a positive signal for consumers. Food prices depend heavily on external factors such as energy, fuel, transport, packaging, weather conditions and wages in agriculture and food processing. Food demand is relatively inelastic, so although the growth pace is slowing, this category remains sensitive to changes in production and distribution costs,”
explains Dr. Gawlik.
Dr. Motylska-Kuźma adds that while food prices are stabilising, high production costs persist, limiting room for further reductions:
“The current equilibrium should lead to continued deceleration in November and December, although this does not mean that shopping will become cheaper. Prices will simply grow at a pace consistent with the National Bank of Poland’s inflation target of 2.5%,”
she forecasts.
Consumer Staples Still Rising Faster Than Inflation
Analysts at UCE RESEARCH highlight that the most frequently purchased products are still rising faster than headline inflation. This is because the inflation index includes other categories that have recently faced less upward pressure — such as transport, housing, clothing, footwear and telecommunications equipment. Fuel prices, in particular, have been strongly influenced by a weak dollar and broader geopolitical factors, resulting in a year-on-year decline visible at petrol stations.
“Retail trade often reacts with a delay to economic changes. Some manufacturers and retailers are still passing on the effects of earlier increases in raw material and logistics costs. This is visible in high margins and in practices such as reducing product sizes while keeping prices unchanged. Even though overall inflation is falling, many goods remain expensive. Consumers should not expect a return to previous price levels in the short term. Disinflation means slower growth in prices, not price declines,”
emphasises Dr. Gawlik.
Four Categories Recorded Price Declines in October
In October, 4 of the 17 analysed categories recorded year-on-year price declines, while the remaining categories rose. In September, declines occurred in 3 categories; in August in 4.
“Market pressure on price increases is visibly weakening, helping inflation return to levels considered healthy for the economy. The December holiday season remains a risk, as elevated consumption typically fuels price growth,”
warns Dr. Motylska-Kuźma.
Dr. Gawlik concludes that prices across categories may diverge more sharply in the coming months. Some products — such as imported beverages and stimulants — are likely to continue rising, while other segments may enter a phase of stabilisation or even decline, especially in sectors with strong competition and a high share of private-label goods.
Methodology
The data comes from the long-running monthly report “PRICE INDEX IN RETAIL STORES”, conducted for over 8 years by UCE RESEARCH and WSB Merito University. The analysis measures average price levels month over month and year over year. This edition compares October 2025 with October 2024 and covers 17 categories and more than 100 of the most frequently purchased products. In total, the study examined over 101,400 retail prices from nearly 48,000 stores across 60 retail chains — including all major discount stores, hypermarkets, supermarkets, convenience chains and cash-and-carry wholesalers operating in Poland.
