The Polish zloty is recovering part of the losses recorded during a volatile session in which the euro briefly approached PLN 4.40 and the dollar PLN 3.86. Investors did not get the breakthrough they had hoped for from US-China talks, while pressure in the oil market has eased somewhat. That has been enough for capital to begin cautiously moving back towards riskier markets, including Poland.
US-China summit delivers stability rather than a breakthrough
The meeting between the leaders of the world’s two largest powers had been billed as potentially decisive. For financial and currency markets, however, the outcome was much less dramatic. Investors looking for a clear answer on whether the two countries were heading towards a trade agreement or renewed confrontation instead received an extension of the negotiating window by two months.
There were smaller developments concerning semiconductors and rare-earth materials, but nothing that markets could reasonably describe as a comprehensive breakthrough. The dollar nevertheless avoided the correction some investors had expected after its recent strong gains, suggesting that the outcome was not viewed as negative for the US currency.
Persian Gulf risks remain elevated
The US-China meeting coincided with another period of heightened geopolitical tension in the Persian Gulf. Oil briefly traded near USD 108 per barrel during the previous session, making it difficult to separate the impact of trade expectations from the broader flight to safety caused by geopolitical risk.
Shipping conditions around the Strait of Hormuz remain a key source of uncertainty. Oil has since eased towards USD 105 per barrel, but with the weekend approaching, investors remain alert to the risk of further escalation.
Relief for the zloty
After the previous session’s extremes, the Polish currency has moved back towards earlier levels. EUR/PLN briefly tested the PLN 4.40 area, a level not seen since the beginning of 2024. Other Central European currencies are also strengthening, pointing to a broader improvement in risk sentiment across the region.
The dollar showed a similar pattern. USD/PLN reached around PLN 3.86 before retreating. The lack of a new escalation in US-China relations and a temporary easing of pressure in the Gulf are encouraging investors to look again at emerging markets, including Poland.
The macroeconomic calendar contains no major releases today, leaving global risk sentiment, energy prices and geopolitical developments as the main drivers for the zloty.
