After a challenging 2023, where the warehouse and logistics sector grappled with escalating rents and vacancies, warehouses are entering the new year with good prospects. Industry experts at Colliers expect rent rates to stabilize and investment activity to increase. Additionally, the continued advancement of electromobility and maritime transport will positively impact the sector.
Key Events in the Polish Warehouse Market in 2023
Demand Slowed
Throughout 2023, there was a significant decrease in demand for industrial-logistics spaces. The year-on-year decrease was about 30% for both gross and net volumes. “This substantial drop in year-on-year demand is due to the high starting value,” explains Antoni Szwech, an Analyst in Colliers’ Advisory and Market Research Department, “Over 2021 and 2022, warehouse space was in the highest demand in this market’s history.”
More Eco-friendly Buildings
Green buildings have grown increasingly popular, with many being awarded certification for their eco-friendly design. In early 2023, Panattoni Park Szczecin III became the first industrial-logistics park to receive a BREEAM certificate at the highest Outstanding level.
More Vacancies
The vacancy rate trend continued upwards throughout 2023. In the third quarter of the year, the rate reached 7.7%, the highest in the past three years. The increase in vacant warehouse-logistics space also resulted from the supply of new spaces, with about 2/3 of vacant space located in buildings completed after 2021.
Construction Decline
In 2023, Colliers experts recorded a decrease in the volume of space under construction.
Improvement in the construction market
The war in Ukraine caused significant changes in the construction market. Colliers experts recorded an improvement in 2023.
Forecasts for 2024
Growing Automotive Sector
The automotive sector, especially electromobility, is projected to grow in Poland throughout 2024.
Easing of Vacancy Rate Growth
Despite the rapidly growing vacancy rate starting from 2022, experts predict a slowdown of this trend for 2024, with the rate not expected to exceed 10%.
Rent Rate Stabilization
Given the relatively high availability of existing industrial-logistics space, Jan Barbasiewicz, a Partner in the Logistics and Industrial Space Department at Colliers, expects pressure to lower rent rates.
Increased Investment Activity
Economies’ stabilization in 2024 is expected to increase investors’ activity, with economic forecasts lending themselves to improved investment levels.
Maritime Transport Development
Developments in Poland’s maritime infrastructure have potential to bolster the warehouse, logistics, and industrial real estate markets in the Baltic region.
