June wage data from Poland’s enterprise sector confirm that salary growth in the economy is gradually returning to more normal levels.
Average pay increased by 5.9% year on year, slightly exceeding market expectations of 5.6%. This remains a solid rate of growth, although it is clearly lower than the figures recorded last year.
Following particularly strong pay increases in 2024, when wage growth reached its highest level in more than two decades, the labour market is gradually returning to a more balanced pace.
In June, the average gross monthly salary in the enterprise sector—covering companies employing at least 10 people and excluding the public sector—reached PLN 9,401.58.
The latest data consistently confirm that wage pressure is weakening. This is already the third reading this year in which annual salary growth has fallen below 6%.
It is worth noting that several members of Poland’s Monetary Policy Council have previously identified this level as a threshold at which wage growth becomes more consistent with productivity gains and its effect on inflation begins to weaken significantly.
From an investor’s perspective, the data provide another argument in favour of a stabilisation of monetary policy.
Following recent comments by the President of the National Bank of Poland and several members of the Monetary Policy Council, the most likely scenario remains that interest rates will be kept at their current level over the coming quarters.
At the same time, there are growing indications that a discussion about possible interest rate cuts could begin after the summer.
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