The cost of everyday shopping in Poland increased by an average of 2.7% year on year in June 2026, according to a recently published analysis covering nearly 100,000 retail prices across 17 product categories.
This marked a further slowdown from annual price growth of 3.4% in May and 3.7% in April. Food prices alone increased by an average of 1.9% year on year, also less than in the previous two months.
For another consecutive month, food prices rose significantly more slowly than the prices of all categories included in the study. Experts warn, however, that the full impact of recent global tensions may still appear on store shelves with a delay.
Retail price growth continues to slow
According to the Retail Store Price Index, prepared by UCE Research and WSB Merito University, the average cost of everyday purchases increased by 2.7% year on year in June.
The report was based on an analysis of nearly 100,000 retail prices. In May, the annual increase amounted to 3.4%, while in April it stood at 3.7%, indicating that the pace of price growth has now slowed for another consecutive month.
Statistics Poland reported that annual consumer price inflation in Poland fell to 2.5% in June.
Dr Piotr Arak, Chief Economist at VeloBank, said the country is currently experiencing a consistent, multi-month disinflationary trend.
“The key factor is that the cost impulse which drove prices higher in the spring is fading. It was mainly associated with uncertainty in the oil and fuel markets amid tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz,” Arak explained.
“The agreement between the United States and Iran, together with the decline in Brent crude prices from more than $100 per barrel, led to a significant monthly fall in fuel prices of as much as 7.4% in June. This pulled the entire consumer basket lower,” he added.
Prices are still increasing, but more slowly
Dr Agnieszka Łopatka of WSB Merito University stressed that the June result does not indicate an overall fall in prices. Instead, it shows a clear slowdown in the rate at which prices are increasing.
Among the factors contributing to this trend, she identified lower transport costs and falling prices of energy commodities, including fuels.
These factors affect the entire supply chain, from manufacturers to retailers, reducing the cost pressure faced by businesses. As a result, companies have less need to pass higher expenses on to consumers.
“Global trends in the food market are also an important factor. The FAO world food price indices have been declining for several months, which is gradually affecting the Polish market,” Łopatka said.
“In addition, the prices of basic agricultural products were lower in May than a year earlier. Double-digit decreases were recorded for products including milk, pigs and cereals. This means lower food production costs, which are reflected in retail prices after a certain delay,” she explained.
Food prices increase by 1.9%
Regular and promotional food prices increased by an average of 1.9% year on year in June, compared with 2.4% in May and 3.3% in April.
According to Dr Marek Szymański of WSB Merito University, it is difficult to identify a single reason for the slowdown.
Food is a highly diverse category in terms of the resources and technologies used in production, as well as the ability to store individual products.
Arak said the lower rate of food price growth reflected a very favourable supply situation on domestic and global agricultural markets, which was already visible in May’s agricultural purchasing price data.
Seasonal factors typical of this time of year also played a role. Another important element was the high comparison base from the previous year, when food prices were rising much more rapidly.
“Consumers have reasons to be pleased, but the agricultural sector is struggling with profit margins,” Arak said.
Middle East tensions affect non-food categories more quickly
In June, food inflation was once again clearly lower than the average price increase across all categories analysed in the report.
Marcin Luziński, an economist at Erste Bank, said food prices are currently rising more slowly than the overall shopping basket partly because the conflict in the Middle East has had a faster impact on other categories.
The conflict increased chemical production costs, contributing to higher prices for household cleaning products and personal hygiene goods.
The effect on food prices is expected to emerge much more slowly and be spread over a longer period because agricultural and food production cycles are longer.
Dishwashing liquid, for example, can be manufactured within a few days, while growing tomatoes takes several months.
Discount retailers intensify their price war
Strong competition between retail chains also contributed to the food price figures.
“An open price war is continuing between discount retailers. Basic food products such as flour, rapeseed oil, butter, milk and meat are being used as tools in the battle for customers,” Łopatka said.
“The growing number of promotions reduces the average prices paid by consumers. At the same time, representatives of the food processing industry point out that some promotional prices do not reflect the actual costs of raw materials, production, logistics and energy,” she added.
According to Łopatka, this demonstrates the intensity of competitive pressure currently affecting the retail sector.
Dr Maria Andrzej Faliński, a former long-serving director general of the Polish Organisation of Trade and Distribution, said another wave of aggressive price competition has begun.
Price remains the main competitive instrument used by discount retailers, which dominate the Polish market and are increasingly relying on it to attract customers.
Although the overall pace of price growth is slowing, this does not necessarily mean that the domestic market is responding to permanently stabilised conditions.
Prices remain affected by the international situation, climate conditions, commodity costs and disruptions to global trade.
Inflationary pressure is changing its character
Łopatka noted that food is no longer the main source of retail price growth.
Categories whose prices depend on labour costs, regulations, taxes and service costs are becoming increasingly important.
Inflationary pressure has therefore changed from being primarily food-related to being driven increasingly by costs, regulation and services.
“The risk of disruption to the flow of goods in export markets has redirected some food supplies to the domestic market,” Faliński said.
“This means greater competition and pressure from major suppliers to reduce prices, particularly in segments such as meat. Among plant-based products, a certain balance in domestic supplies is also emerging as a result of climatic and import-related factors, which can quickly restrain extreme price increases. This is already happening and is likely to continue until the end of the year,” he added.
Global shocks reach store shelves with a delay
Recent months have brought several factors that could have supported higher retail prices, including geopolitical tensions and changes in commodity markets.
Nevertheless, the June data show a continued slowdown in price growth, both across the entire shopping basket and in food alone.
Asked why price pressure was weaker in June than might have been expected, Szymański pointed to the way international developments are transmitted through the economy.
“International events can have a rapid and sometimes disproportionately large impact on commodity markets. However, there are many intermediaries between commodity exchanges and store shelves,” he said.
“In 2022, bread prices did not immediately rise by 50% when wheat prices surged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the same way, we are not now seeing immediate food price increases following recent political disruption,” Szymański explained.
The impact may nevertheless be more visible in certain categories.
Most food production is also based on relatively local raw materials, which makes it more difficult for global cost pressures to translate rapidly into the prices of finished products.
Łopatka concluded that retail prices typically respond to global shocks with a delay of several months.
The June reading therefore primarily reflects the favourable cost conditions seen in the spring rather than the period of greatest geopolitical tension.
The full effects of those tensions may still become visible, as passing higher costs on to retail prices is usually a gradual process spread over time.
