In 2024, the real estate market will continue to be characterized by rising prices, driven in part by the new government program “Mieszkanie na start” (Home Start). This trend is a continuation of the government’s policy, which has previously affected property prices. However, preliminary assumptions suggest that the impact of the new program on additional demand and the burden on taxpayers will be less than that of the “Bezpieczny kredyt 2%” program.
Home Start – a new government housing program
A government program set to replace “Bezpieczny kredyt 2%” will come into effect in mid-2024. It will offer preferential interest rates on loans for buying the first-time home. However, the highest-earning segment will be excluded from it. This strategic approach aims to direct support to those who could afford a loan without government subsidies. This will be regulated by income thresholds set by the Ministry.
Cost and Impacts on the Budget
Compared to the previous program, the new initiative will burden the state budget less. It is estimated that in the first year of the program, its cost will amount to half a billion zlotys, generating 50,000 preferential loans. Despite these assumptions, there is uncertainty regarding the realism of these predictions, particularly in light of experiences from “Bezpieczny kredyt 2%.”
Impact on Property Prices
Kuba Karliński, founder of Magmillon company and author of the book “Let’s Earn on Real Estate,” predicts that in 2024 the price increase for apartments may remain at the level of 8-10%. This is lower than the potential increases that could result from reintroducing a significant stream of cheap money into the market.
Program Eligibility
The maximum monthly gross income qualifying for the program was set depending on the size of the household, starting from 10 thousand zlotys for a single-person household, up to 33 thousand zlotys for a five-person household. The amounts of preferential loans will also differ depending on the size of the family, reaching up to 500 thousand zlotys for a four-person household.
Investment Perspectives
Investing in real estate in 2024 will still be an attractive option, especially in the context of protection against inflation, which exceeded 11% in 2023. Investing in smaller apartments may be particularly beneficial, taking into account that rents in some cities increased by even 20% in 2023. The lack of available rental properties in the market is an additional argument for this type of investment.
