As expected by market participants, the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) has decided to keep the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) interest rates unchanged. The reference rate remains at 5.25%.
Most analysts anticipate the next interest rate cut to come as early as July, with the total reduction potentially ranging between 50 and 100 basis points by the end of 2025.
Several factors contribute to this outlook. One is the lower inflation forecast for 2025, with projections suggesting inflation readings may fall within the upper range of the NBP’s target (2.5% ±1 percentage point) already during the summer. This expected disinflation is supported by a significant reduction in gas tariffs set for July and the base effect from last year’s partial unfreezing of energy prices.
The market is also closely watching Thursday’s press conference by NBP President Adam Glapiński. This follows speculation that emerged after the results of Monday’s elections, suggesting the Council might adopt a more hawkish stance in response to concerns over potentially more expansionary fiscal policies.
Author:
Jan Karczewski, Director of Strategic Clients, Michael / Ström Brokerage House
Source:
CEO.com.pl – RPP maintains interest rates; market expects cuts in July
