The Monetary Policy Council (RPP) has decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) reference rate to 4.5%. This marks another consecutive step toward monetary easing — a move that, according to economists, was not an obvious one given the still uncertain economic environment.
Comment by Mariusz Zielonka, Chief Economist at the Lewiatan Confederation
“The economic environment has not changed enough to justify another rate cut this month — or so it seemed. Yet, the Monetary Policy Council made a modest but real reduction of 25 basis points, bringing the rate down to 4.5%,” commented Mariusz Zielonka.
The economist noted that Poland’s economy continues to maintain a relatively stable pace of growth, driven primarily by private consumption.
“We are not seeing major disruptions in industry either. The only signs of slowdown appear in the labour market, but they are not strong enough to justify a faster rate cut toward 4%,” he added.
Inflation Remains at the Core of the Council’s Focus
The key argument behind the RPP’s decision remains inflation, which stood at 2.9% year-on-year in September 2025. Although this figure is now within the NBP’s inflation target range, price pressures — as Zielonka pointed out — have not completely disappeared.
“It’s a signal that price pressures are easing but still significant. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, remains around 3.1–3.2% year-on-year, showing that the economy continues to experience moderate cost and demand pressures,” said the expert.
Zielonka emphasized that these pressures are likely to subside gradually as wage growth slows down — a trend already visible in recent months.
Outlook for Monetary Policy
Economists suggest that the RPP’s decision may signal a cautious continuation of the rate-cutting cycle in the coming months, provided inflation stays close to the target and economic growth does not accelerate sharply.
From a financial market perspective, the 25-basis-point reduction indicates a softening stance but also confirms that the Council is not willing to act hastily.
“This decision is more symbolic than fundamental. It shows that the Council still sees room for further easing but does not want to risk reigniting inflation,” concluded Mariusz Zielonka.
Source: CEO.com.pl
