At the start of the new year, the December PMI index for industry in Poland was published, which proved disappointing. The slowdown in activity was more pronounced than expected (from 48.7 points to 47.4 points compared to market estimates at 48.5 points). Consequently, activity in the Polish industry has fallen for the 20th consecutive month. However, it should be noted that the index value is the highest since March 2023. The decrease in December followed a surprisingly strong improvement in November. The number of new orders was lower in December for almost a record month, and employment fell for the 19th consecutive month, but at the slowest pace since June of the previous year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in December was preliminarily +0.1% m/m and +6.1% y/y.
December PMI data from the manufacturing sector in Germany and the euro area were revised upwards, but the decrease in activity remains very noticeable. German data, however, suggest that the worst slowdown in the manufacturing sector there is probably over. German CPI inflation accelerated in December to 3.7% y/y (from 3.2% y/y), but this was mainly due to the effect of governmental energy assistance for German households at the end of 2022. The ISM index for the US industry rose in December, but still remains below the neutral level of 50 points. The ADP report (164 thous.) surprised with good results.
The euro weakened against the dollar and was slightly above the level of 1.09 USD/EUR on Friday morning. The zloty initially weakened against the euro to the level of 4.375 PLN/EUR, but made up for losses and ended the day near the level of 4.345 PLN/EUR (Friday morning). Against the dollar, the zloty weakened to the level of 4 PLN/USD.
AKCENTA CZ a.s.
