Saxo Bank has released its latest Investor Forecast survey, outlining the expectations of retail investors for the next six months. The findings suggest that Polish investors maintain a constructive yet balanced outlook on financial markets, with a clear preference for the domestic market and growing interest in Japan, while adopting a more cautious stance toward the United States and Europe.
Despite an overall positive sentiment, Polish investors appear more sensitive than their global counterparts to macroeconomic risks and valuation levels. The survey was conducted among Saxo Bank clients between February 6 and March 1, 2026, including 203 respondents in Poland. Notably, most responses were collected before the escalation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Poland and Japan Lead Investor Expectations
Polish investors show above-average confidence in their domestic market, with 53.7% expecting growth over the next six months—higher than the global average. Similarly strong expectations are directed toward Japan (55.6%), which remains one of the most favored investment destinations globally.
Global equity markets are also viewed positively, with 51.9% of Polish respondents anticipating growth, although this optimism is slightly weaker compared to global results. In contrast, sentiment toward the U.S. market is markedly more cautious—43.8% of Polish investors expect declines, making it the weakest among the analyzed markets. Europe remains neutral, with a high share of “no change” responses (40.4%), indicating a lack of clear directional expectations.
Younger Investors More Willing to Take Risks
The youngest respondents (aged 18–35) display the highest levels of optimism toward both Polish and global markets, as well as the strongest interest in Japan. Older investor groups tend to adopt a more conservative approach, reflected in a higher share of “no change” responses and greater focus on geopolitical risks.
Gender differences are also evident: men are more likely to express a higher risk appetite and optimistic market expectations, while women more frequently emphasize caution and sensitivity to risk factors.
Stable Strategies with Rising Caution
A majority of Polish investors (56.7%) plan to maintain their current portfolio structure over the next six months, aligning with the global trend of “staying the course.” However, a relatively higher proportion compared to global peers (18.2%) are considering reducing diversification, which may indicate growing caution and a stronger focus on selected asset classes.
One of the key factors influencing potential strategy adjustments is concern over market overvaluation, cited by 64.4% of respondents in Poland. More than half (53.3%) also take into account the potential impact of policies associated with Donald Trump.
Artificial intelligence emerges as a major opportunity shaping investment decisions, identified by 61.2% of respondents. At the same time, only 42% of Polish investors express optimism about economic growth—significantly below global levels.
Geopolitics remains a dominant market driver, with nearly half of respondents (49.3%) identifying it as the most important factor in the coming quarter. Other key influences include technological development (20.2%) and corporate earnings (13.8%).
Global Perspective: Cautious Optimism with Japan in Focus
Globally, investors also maintain a moderately positive outlook, though more balanced than in Poland. While domestic markets dominate local sentiment, Japan stands out internationally—nearly two-thirds of global investors (63%) expect growth there, compared to 57% for global equities and only 40% for the U.S. market.
As in Poland, most global investors do not plan significant portfolio changes: 63% intend to maintain current exposure, 27% are considering entering new areas, and 10% plan to reduce diversification. Concerns about overvaluation are even more pronounced globally, cited by 69% of respondents.
According to Charu Chanana, investors are currently navigating a fine line between optimism and caution. She notes that the survey was conducted before the escalation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, and that subsequent developments may have influenced investor sentiment. At the same time, she highlights Japan as one of the most compelling markets, supported by structural reforms and improving corporate governance.
Overall, the findings suggest that despite geopolitical tensions and rapid technological change, investors are not inclined toward radical portfolio shifts. Instead, they are focusing on risk monitoring and a more selective approach to investment decisions.
About the Survey
The survey was conducted between February 6 and March 1, 2026, among Saxo Bank clients. In Poland, 203 respondents participated. The questionnaire covered investor expectations for financial markets between April 1 and September 30, 2026. It is important to note that most responses were collected before late-February geopolitical developments that may have influenced market sentiment.
