Poland’s CPI inflation rose to 4.0% year on year in September 2026 and 0.7% month on month. The annual reading was 0.1 percentage point below the market forecast referenced by analysts, while the monthly result was in line with expectations.
For the Monetary Policy Council, core inflation — which excludes food and energy prices — may be more important than the headline CPI figure when assessing the persistence of price pressure.
However, headline inflation has now clearly moved above the upper boundary of the National Bank of Poland’s target range. The NBP target is 2.5%, with a tolerance band of plus or minus 1 percentage point.
Piotr Bawolski, director for strategic clients at brokerage Michael / Ström, noted that the CPI reading could become one of the factors increasing pressure for an earlier interest-rate increase than previously expected, although the decision will depend on the broader inflation picture and incoming data.
This article is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
