The Polish industrial and logistics market remains one of the key segments of the commercial real estate market in the country and Europe. In 2024, the volume of investment transactions involving warehouse assets reached EUR 1.26 billion, while demand remained at 5.8 million sqm (+4% YoY). Although developer activity declined by 30%, the new supply (2.6 million sqm) returned to pre-pandemic levels, with 1.8 million sqm still under construction. The sector’s condition shows signs of stabilization in terms of vacancy rates (7.5%) and rental rates, which have remained at the previous year’s levels. Poland’s largest commercial real estate consultancy, AXI IMMO, presents its report “Warehouse Market in Poland 2024.”
Investment Market – Recovery and Stabilization
In 2024, the warehouse segment accounted for EUR 1.26 billion (+27% YoY) of the investment market, representing 25% of all transactions. Although retail and office assets experienced spectacular growth (+282% and +272%, respectively), the industrial and logistics sector continued to attract stable capital inflows. A key trend was the return of portfolio transactions, which accounted for 58% of the total transaction volume in 2024. Major ownership changes included the acquisition of five 7R parks by Czech investor Investika and the purchase of three Diamond Business Parks by American investor Greykite.
Grzegorz Chmielak, Head of Capital Markets and Valuations at AXI IMMO, states: “Investors focus on key warehouse hubs such as Warsaw, Upper Silesia, and Poznań, where market fundamentals remain strong. Transactions between developers continue to be a popular method of portfolio expansion, as they are often more cost-effective than new investments due to high construction and financing costs. We expect investment market activity to increase in the coming quarters. By the end of 2024, capitalization rates for prime big-box assets stabilized at 6.5%, further enhancing investment attractiveness.”
Demand: A Stable Year with Growing Lease Renewals
The year 2024 closed with 5.8 million sqm of leased warehouse space (+4% YoY). Lease renewals accounted for 48% of all transactions, reflecting companies’ focus on stability and operational optimization. The most active provinces were Mazowieckie (1.37 million sqm), Łódzkie (1 million sqm), and Dolnośląskie (891,000 sqm). Net demand, which includes new leases and expansions, reached 3.4 million sqm (+1% YoY), maintaining the previous year’s levels. In terms of demand structure, tenants from the retail sector overtook logistics as the dominant force. The largest contracts were signed by e-commerce and retail companies, including a new lease of 103,800 sqm in Bydgoszcz Białe Błota LC (Kuyavian-Pomeranian Voivodeship). Other significant deals included a lease renewal and expansion of a logistics operator for 98,700 sqm at Prime Logistics Wrocław Pietrzykowice and a new lease for 91,000 sqm at Panattoni Wrocław Logistics South Hub—both in the Dolnośląskie Voivodeship.
Anna Głowacz, Head of Industrial and Logistics Agency at AXI IMMO, explains: “Companies increasingly choose to remain in their existing locations to avoid relocation costs and maintain operational stability. Rental costs and labor shortages are the two main factors limiting relocation decisions. We also observe a growing interest in environmentally certified facilities, highlighting the continued development of ESG strategies in the sector.”
Supply: A Return to Pre-Pandemic Activity
In 2024, the total warehouse developer activity amounted to 2.6 million sqm (-30% YoY). Despite this decline, new supply volume was similar to the pre-pandemic average, suggesting a return to a more sustainable growth rate. The highest volume of new space was delivered in Dolnośląskie (675,000 sqm), followed by Mazowieckie (468,000 sqm) and Łódzkie (343,000 sqm). Among the largest warehouse parks delivered in 2024 were P3 Wrocław (172,800 sqm) in Dolnośląskie and two CTP investments: CTPark Gdańsk Port (119,400 sqm) in Pomeranian Voivodeship and CTPark Warsaw West (Wiskitki) with 110,400 sqm in Mazowieckie. The largest parks under 100,000 sqm included Panattoni Park Wrocław Logistics South Hub (90,000 sqm) and GLP Wrocław V Logistics Centre (86,200 sqm) in Dolnośląskie.
Currently, 1.8 million sqm is under construction (-38% YoY), with the largest amounts in Śląskie (383,000 sqm), Dolnośląskie (344,000 sqm), and Łódzkie (232,000 sqm). Speculative projects make up 47% of the total construction volume, slightly less than in previous years.
Vacancy Rates: Stable Throughout 2024
At the end of 2024, the vacancy rate stood at 7.5% (+0.1 pp YoY, -0.5 pp QoQ), maintaining stability. The highest availability was recorded in Lubuskie (19%) and Świętokrzyskie (16.9%), while emerging markets such as Podlaskie and Warmian-Masurian were nearly fully occupied. The largest immediate rental availability was found in Łódzkie (9.7%), Dolnośląskie (9.6%), and Wielkopolskie (7%). Moderate new tenant activity and a high proportion of lease renewals contributed to maintaining the supply-demand balance.
Rental Rates: No Significant Changes on the Horizon
In 2024, base rental rates in the warehouse sector remained stable in most regions, with only slight increases of up to 5% in some cases. Average rents for big-box facilities ranged from EUR 3.6 to 4.3 per sqm/month in older buildings and from EUR 4.0 to 5.5 per sqm/month in new developments. The lowest rates were in Łódzkie, Śląskie, and Wielkopolskie, where space could be leased for EUR 3.6–3.8 per sqm/month. Meanwhile, the highest rates were in Warsaw, where rents for new projects reached EUR 7.25 per sqm/month.
Outlook for 2025 – Cautious Optimism
Renata Osiecka, Managing Partner at AXI IMMO, concludes: “We expect Poland’s warehouse sector to remain one of the strongest in Europe in 2025. Forecasted economic growth provides a foundation for optimistic expectations in both demand and supply. Companies will continue to focus on process optimization and ESG strategies. Relocations will be carefully considered, while rising costs and labor shortages will drive more lease renegotiations. On the supply side, developers will focus on markets with limited available space, prioritizing projects with high pre-leasing levels. In the investment market, the stabilization of capitalization rates should stimulate investor activity, including acquisitions of completed properties.”
Source: https://managerplus.pl/rynek-magazynowy-w-polsce-w-2024-r-stabilizacja-z-oznakami-wzrostu-64058
