Data from the Statistics Poland (GUS) regarding the scale of new residential construction in January has dampened the enthusiasm sparked by December’s readings. Across all categories—dwellings completed, construction starts, and building permits—results were weaker than a year ago.
The latest GUS data shows that the number of apartments and houses completed in Poland in January 2026 was 40.5% lower compared to December 2025 and 8% lower relative to January of last year. While the situation looks slightly better compared to January results from two years ago (a minor decrease of -1.4%), it is worth noting that the January figure for completed dwellings is the lowest recorded in GUS statistics in a decade.
Past, Present, and Future Expectations
In January, all investor groups combined completed 14.7 thousand units. Within this pool, property developers were responsible for 8.6 thousand apartments, marking a 47.5% drop compared to December and a more than 11% decline compared to January last year.
It is impossible to objectively analyze and evaluate this year’s GUS data for developers without considering the number of construction starts initiated by these entities in the first half of 2024. It should be remembered that the delayed reaction of developers to the skyrocketing demand caused by the “BK2%” (2% Housing Loan) program resulted in a high volume of construction starts back then.
The effects of those actions should theoretically be visible in the number of dwellings completed in the first half of the current year. However, January’s data suggests these forecasts may not materialize in the coming months due to a demand-side slowdown that occurred between 2024 and the first half of 2025. As a result, construction timelines for developer projects have been extended, meaning a higher number of completions may only appear in GUS data in the second half of 2026.
Property developers account for 59% of all residential units completed this January. However, the results for individual investors are more stable; their share in Poland’s total residential construction fluctuated between 35% and 38% in various months of 2025, closing January 2026 at 39%.
Compared to the first month of 2025, households (classified as individual investors by GUS) finished construction on 1% more homes/apartments, though their result was 22% worse than the previous month.
Fewer Permits and Fewer Starts at the Start of the Year
Efforts by various investor groups to obtain building permits in January 2026 yielded significantly weaker results (-37%) than in December 2025. Compared to January 2025, these figures are also down by double digits (-12%).
The total number of permits issued in January exceeded 17.6 thousand, of which developers obtained 11.7 thousand and individual investors 5.8 thousand. Consequently, the total number of permits was 37% lower than in December. This significantly weaker month-on-month performance was driven by low activity among developers (-42% compared to December 2025).
GUS statistics for construction starts across Poland in the first month of the year indicate the weakest performance since January 2023. The number of construction starts by all investor groups in January 2026 is 29% lower than a year ago and 6% lower than in December. This double-digit decline in the overall category was shared equally by developers and households (approximately -30% in each group). The only growth was recorded in the social rental housing segment (TBS, SIM), which saw increases both month-on-month (188%) and year-on-year (55%). However, it must be noted that these increases involved fewer than 400 apartments.
Why are we building less?
Current GUS data on construction starts should also be interpreted in the context of building permit statistics. In January of this year, the gap between the number of permits obtained and construction starts was 5.3 thousand. This means that 30% of permits obtained were not followed by immediate construction.
However, in a freezing January, such a high percentage of deferred starts is not surprising. Notably, more than half (nearly 3 thousand) of this surplus was due to permits for houses built by households, who will almost certainly wait until spring to break ground.
The performance of developers regarding the surplus of permits over starts should be viewed differently. In this investor group, the statistics for deferred starts in January actually look slightly better: in 2024, developers deferred 25% of permits; in 2025, it was 20%; and in January 2026, the rate stood at 24%.
