Data from the real estate market for the third quarter of 2025 may offer developers a cautious dose of optimism when projecting trends for the final months of the year. On the demand side, clear signs of revival and renewed buyer interest in residential properties are visible. However, on the supply side, caution and uncertainty still dominate, as reflected in the limited number of new projects entering the market.
New Supply Hits Two-Year Low
In the third quarter of 2025, developers launched 10,100 new apartments for sale — the lowest quarterly result for new supply in two years. After a subdued July and August, when a total of 6,900 units were introduced across Poland’s seven largest markets (Katowice, Kraków, Łódź, Poznań, the Tri-City, Warsaw, and Wrocław), September brought only a modest increase in developer activity.
As a result, the overall volume of new supply barely exceeded 10,000 units, marking a 6% decline quarter-on-quarter and a 12% drop year-on-year.
Demand Surprises on the Upside
The situation on the demand side looks strikingly different. In Q3 2025, over 11,000 apartments were sold, significantly exceeding analysts’ expectations.
For comparison:
- In Q3 2024, 8,100 units were sold,
- In Q2 2025, 8,600 units were sold.
This represents a 39% increase year-on-year and a 30% increase quarter-on-quarter, confirming that buyers remain active and are responding to improved financing conditions.
Price Adjustments After a Period of Stability
After several months of relative price stability, slight downward adjustments appeared in September across most major markets. However, analysts advise caution in interpreting these movements, noting that it will take several weeks to determine whether these price reductions represent a lasting trend. The adjustments coincided with the entry into force of new price transparency regulations in the housing sector, which may have temporarily affected listing strategies.
Market Seeks a New Equilibrium
Over the past few months, the residential market has clearly been searching for a new balance point — a process reflected in both stable average prices and a steady number of available listings. This adjustment phase overlaps with significant legislative changes, including the introduction of the Apartment Price Transparency Act, which came into effect at the end of Q3 2025.
A key indicator of market equilibrium is the sell-off period — the time required to sell all units currently on offer if the current sales pace continued and no new projects were added. In a balanced market, this ratio typically ranges between 4 and 5 quarters.
Currently, the indicator stands at nearly 6 quarters, meaning that at the current sales rate and without new supply, it would take developers roughly a year to sell their entire stock.
A Buyer’s Market — But Without Sharp Price Declines
The current reading of the absorption rate suggests that Poland’s largest urban housing markets remain buyer’s markets. Buyers continue to benefit from a wide selection of units and promotional offers, though not necessarily from lower prices.
Even in a buyer’s market with a sell-off ratio hovering around six quarters (± one quarter), prices tend to remain relatively stable, showing only minor, temporary fluctuations.
In summary, Q3 2025 brought a noticeable rebound in sales but continued restraint among developers. The Polish housing market appears to be stabilizing after a period of volatility, with both sides — buyers and developers — carefully adapting to a new, more transparent and data-driven environment.
