Data for the third quarter of 2024 showed a slowdown in the growth dynamics of the Polish housing market. According to experts from the international advisory firm Cushman & Wakefield, high interest rates and limited availability of mortgage loans significantly limit demand, which affects the decrease in the number of apartments bought and stabilization after a period of sharp increases in apartment prices. At the same time, forecasts for GDP growth for the next year remain positive, and developers are rebuilding their offer – the number of building permits obtained in 2024 was 33% higher than in the corresponding period of the previous year.
The Polish economy, which after a period of stagnation in 2023 recorded growth, provides a favorable background for further development of the housing market. According to Moody’s forecasts, the country’s GDP is to increase by 3.1% in 2024 and by 3.6% in 2025. Wage growth and stabilization of the economic situation favor maintaining demand for housing, but the problem remains inflation and high interest rates, which contribute to a decrease in the number of inquiries about housing loans.
Like the experts at Cushman & Wakefield point out, in the housing market we observed a further growth in average offer prices both on the primary and secondary market. In the third quarter of 2024, the prices of new apartments increased by 10% on an annual scale, with the largest increases in Łódź (+20%) and Wrocław (+13%). The stabilization of the rate of price growth between July and September suggests that the effects of the “Safe Credit 2%” program, which previously stimulated demand for housing, have been exhausted.
In the first three quarters, developers started construction of 46% more apartments than in the corresponding period of 2023 and by 25% – than in 2022. As a result, 2024 has a chance to close as the second best after 2021 in terms of the number of apartments in the category for sale and for rent. According to otodom data, developers on the largest markets in the third quarter of 2024 introduced 12 thousand apartments for sale, and at the same time sold 9 thousand apartments (same as in the second quarter of 2024). It is clearly visible that there are still willing to buy, and wage growth and low unemployment can stimulate these decisions. So, there are still those willing to buy, especially buyers who invest savings and buy apartments for their own needs.
The rental market remains dynamic and is still heavily fragmented, with a large number of new offers appearing on the market. Rent in the third quarter of 2024 increased compared to the second quarter of 2024 on the largest six markets by an average of 4%, most in Gdansk by 6%, least in Krakow and Warsaw by 3%.
On this basis, housing resources in the hands of institutional landlords are currently about 18 thousand apartments in the largest Polish cities (number at the end of October 2024, taking into account the reduction in resources due to the sale of part of the projects to individual buyers).
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/polski-rynek-mieszkaniowy-stabilizacja-popytu-i-cen-wzrost-czynszow-i-rosnace-inwestycje-54176
