The beginning of 2026 brought something the real estate market had not seen for a long time: a clear return of buyers. Despite geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, demand for new apartments not only did not weaken, but actually accelerated noticeably.
BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl data show that developers in Poland’s seven largest metropolitan areas sold around 14,800 apartments in the first quarter. This was 17 percent more than in the previous quarter and as much as 19 percent more than a year earlier.
At first glance, it looks like the return of a boom. But only at first glance.
Buyers Return to the Market
The sales recovery was visible in almost all of the largest cities. Warsaw once again proved to be the leader, with developers selling around 4,900 apartments — as much as 32 percent more than a year earlier.
Double-digit increases were also recorded in Wrocław, up 25 percent, Łódź, up 24 percent, Kraków, up 21 percent, and the Tri-City, up 10 percent. Only Poznań remains in a phase of stagnation for now, although March data suggest that demand there is also beginning to recover.
Buyers have returned to the market much more decisively than just a few months ago. This was influenced by improved mortgage availability, but also by a growing belief that apartment prices may start rising again in the coming quarters.
Developers Are More Cautious with New Supply
Interestingly, the rebound in demand has not translated into an equally dynamic increase in supply.
On the contrary, the data indicate that the number of apartments available in most metropolitan areas has declined, while the structure of supply has clearly shifted towards more expensive units.
“This is the result of a more cautious strategy adopted by developers, who, after the experience of recent quarters, are trying to better control the pace at which they launch new projects and avoid oversupply,” comments Jarosław Jędrzyński, expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
The Stock Market Says: Not So Fast with the Optimism
An even more interesting picture emerges from the capital market.
The five largest listed residential developers — Archicom, Murapol, Develia, Dom Development and Atal — which together account for more than 80 percent of the capitalization of the WIG-Real Estate index, sold a total of 3,998 apartments in the first quarter. This represents an increase of 12 percent year on year and 13.6 percent quarter on quarter.
This is a good result — but clearly weaker than the growth rate of the overall market.
From the beginning of the year to the end of April, the WIG-Real Estate index rose by around 8.6 percent, outperforming the broad WIG index, which gained 6.9 percent.
The problem is that the rise in the real estate index is largely being driven by just two companies — Develia and Archicom. The rest of the market is behaving much more cautiously. Dom Development, widely regarded as the undisputed industry leader, has remained slightly in negative territory since the beginning of the year, while the other companies — with the exception of Develia and Archicom — have recorded only marginal gains.
Where Does Analysts’ Optimism Come From?
Against this backdrop, the recommendations issued by Trigon DM analysts may seem surprisingly optimistic. They forecast very strong share price increases for the main residential development heavyweights listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange — more than one quarter in the case of Atal, Archicom and Murapol, around 14 percent for Dom Development and nearly 10 percent for Develia.
Time will tell how likely this is in the foreseeable future. However, in the current macroeconomic environment, achieving sales and profit growth strong enough to justify such a significant appreciation in share prices may prove difficult.
| Company | Share price on 30 April 2026, PLN | YTD change, % | Target price according to Trigon DM recommendation | Change vs. 30 April 2026, % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atal | 60.00 | 3.81 | 75.00 | 25.0 |
| Archicom | 52.20 | 10.59 | 65.00 | 24.5 |
| Develia | 10.50 | 22.81 | 11.50 | 9.5 |
| Dom Development | 259.00 | -0.19 | 295.00 | 13.9 |
| Murapol | 41.70 | 2.33 | 52.50 | 25.9 |
Share prices of the largest residential developers at the end of April 2026, together with Trigon DM forecasts
Author: RynekPierwotny.pl
Trigon DM, however, points to several key factors supporting the sector. The most important of these is the cycle of interest rate cuts that began at the start of 2025. In total, the National Bank of Poland’s reference rate has fallen by 2.25 percentage points, which has clearly improved mortgage availability and stimulated demand.
The market reacted very quickly. Apartment sales in the largest cities rose by nearly 20 percent in the second half of 2025, and the beginning of 2026 brought a continuation of this trend.
In addition, analysts point to the normalization of supply and the relatively strong position of the largest players, which manage capital efficiently and have no difficulty selling completed apartments.
But This Is No Longer the Same Market
Analysts’ optimism, however, has clear limitations.
On the one hand, interest rates have stopped falling, which means that the main driver of demand is beginning to fade. On the other hand, developers’ operating costs are rising, especially land prices, putting pressure on margins.
According to Trigon DM forecasts, most of the largest companies may record a decline in gross margins in 2026. In addition, the sales structure is changing — a greater focus on smaller, more affordable apartments means a lower value of units sold.
This means that although sales currently look strong, business profitability may deteriorate.
The Market Is Starting to Pick Winners
Even more interesting is the changing balance of power in the sector.
Analysts indicate that after two years of dominance by the largest players, such as Dom Development and Develia, the time may be coming for the “smaller among the large.”
Companies such as Archicom, Atal and Murapol are now expected to offer better growth prospects, both in terms of financial results and stock market valuations.
This is a signal that the market is no longer rising evenly and is beginning to reward selected business models.
A Boom — or Its Final Stage?
The current situation on the housing market is ambiguous.
On the one hand, there is strong demand, improved sales and limited supply. On the other, developers remain cautious and stock market investors are taking a cooler view.
This is a classic transitional moment in which the market is still growing, but no longer growing as evenly as before.
What Comes Next?
The key question is whether the current recovery marks the beginning of a new growth cycle or rather its late stage.
If demand remains high and construction costs continue to rise, strong pressure on apartment prices may return.
However, if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, the market could quickly enter a correction phase.
For now, one thing is certain:
The housing market has accelerated again. But this time, not everyone is moving at the same pace.
Source: CEO.com.pl
