A stronger negotiating position is helping Polish companies better navigate rising geopolitical risks. Shorter trade credit terms and more favourable delivery conditions are allowing them to protect liquidity and reduce exposure, marking a clear shift from previous years.
According to the Allianz Trade Global Survey 2026, the conflict in the Middle East has not derailed expectations for export growth, but it has significantly reshaped the global risk landscape. The survey, conducted among 6,000 companies across 13 markets in two waves in February and late March 2026, examines how geopolitical tensions are affecting export outlooks, global trade and supply chains.
Export optimism persists, but payment risks are rising
Despite ongoing tensions, companies remain broadly optimistic about export growth. Three-quarters of exporters expect their sales abroad to increase in 2026. The impact of the Middle East conflict appears moderate, especially compared to the shock caused by the 2025 trade war, when positive expectations fell sharply.
However, this optimism is fragile. It could quickly weaken if geopolitical tensions intensify or persist. Compared to last year, fewer companies in countries such as Vietnam, the United States, Spain and even China express confidence in future prospects. As a result, geopolitical and political risks have become the top concern for 65% of businesses, overtaking supply chain complexity, which had dominated in 2025.
Concerns related to supply chains—such as supplier bankruptcies and shortages of raw materials—rank second, cited by 57% of companies. At the same time, fewer than one in four firms are worried about the direct impact of the conflict on energy markets or maritime transport. This suggests that companies either trust their mitigation strategies or expect the conflict to remain relatively short-lived.
Even so, the conflict has tightened trade finance conditions. Payment cycles have lengthened, and fewer companies now receive payments within 30 days. At the same time, the share of firms waiting more than 70 days for payment has increased significantly. Looking ahead, 43% of companies expect payment conditions to deteriorate further, even if tensions ease. The perceived risk of non-payment has also risen, with 40% of firms anticipating higher exposure.
Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, construction, and IT and telecommunications are particularly vulnerable, while larger companies tend to face longer payment cycles.
Polish exporters strengthen their position
For Polish exporters, however, the picture is improving. The ongoing trend of nearshoring—relocating production and supply chains closer to end markets—is clearly strengthening their bargaining power.
In the past, Polish companies often offered longer trade credit terms than their Western European competitors as a way to remain competitive. This was sometimes seen as a sign of weaker negotiating power or lower brand recognition. Today, the situation has changed. Western European firms, facing geopolitical uncertainty, are actively seeking new suppliers, often in Central and Eastern Europe.
As a result, 47% of Polish exporters now offer trade credit terms of 30 to 50 days. In most other countries, the share of such shorter-term arrangements is significantly lower, with a higher prevalence of longer credit periods.
Polish firms are also less likely to agree to extended payment terms:
– 50–70 days: 29% in Poland, compared to around 37–40% in countries such as Italy, Germany and Spain
– Over 70 days: 13% in Poland, notably lower than in many Western markets
– Over 90 days: just 2.7% in Poland, compared to higher levels in Spain, Germany and France
This marks a clear departure from earlier practices, where long credit periods were more common among Polish exporters.
Another sign of growing maturity is the more strategic use of Incoterms. Polish companies are increasingly choosing FOB (Free on Board) conditions, shifting transport costs and risks—including insurance—onto the buyer. Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, 48% of Polish exporters report using FOB terms. This is significantly higher than in countries such as the UK or France, where only around 30% of firms apply similar conditions.
This indicates that Polish businesses are becoming more effective in managing risk and protecting cash flow. At the same time, favourable contract terms alone are not enough. In an environment of rising insolvencies and uncertainty, continuous monitoring of counterparties’ financial health and payment behaviour remains essential.
Companies adapt supply chains and strategies
Since the start of the trade war in 2025, companies have been actively adjusting their strategies to cope with the new environment. Those with longer and more complex supply chains have been particularly proactive, focusing on securing new suppliers and rerouting logistics.
The most common responses include building up inventories and diversifying both sales markets and supplier bases, each adopted by around two-thirds of firms. This reflects a broad effort to reduce both demand- and supply-side risks. More than half of companies have also modified transport routes, often using third-country hubs to bypass trade frictions.
In response to the Middle East conflict, half of the surveyed companies have sought alternative logistics routes or carriers. A similarly large share has increased cooperation with specialised customs agencies to streamline clearance procedures. Nearly half have also adjusted delivery schedules to reflect new realities.
Changes to contractual delivery terms, such as Incoterms, have been less frequent, suggesting that operational adjustments tend to precede formal changes in contracts.
Europe and Asia emerge as key growth regions
At the same time, global trade dynamics are shifting. The trade war has reduced the attractiveness of the United States, with only 13% of exporters viewing it as a key growth market. In contrast, Europe and Asia are emerging as the main destinations for future expansion, driven by a search for stability and open market access.
Interest in Europe as an export destination has increased across all regions, particularly among companies from Singapore and the United States. Asia remains the most attractive region overall, although China’s appeal has declined sharply. Only 23% of companies now plan to expand their presence there, a significant drop compared to the previous year.
New trade agreements are also playing a growing role. The vast majority of companies plan to expand based on recently signed free trade deals, including agreements between the EU and India, and between the EU and MERCOSUR. Countries such as India, Brazil, Vietnam and France are emerging as key targets.
However, the full potential of these agreements is still constrained by non-tariff barriers. Licensing requirements and certification procedures remain significant obstacles, limiting the ability of companies to translate market access into real export growth.
In this evolving environment, competitiveness is no longer defined solely by scale or price. Increasingly, it depends on flexibility, risk management and the ability to adapt quickly to shifting geopolitical and economic conditions.
