According to published data, the Polish economy is in quite a good position. There is a progression of economic resurgence. In the second quarter of this year, economic growth was 3.2% compared to the second quarter of 2023. If the EU methodology were used, which uses seasonally adjusted data, this growth would amount to 4%. Conversely, comparing quarter to quarter, which means the second quarter to the first quarter of this year, the growth reached 1.5%. This is the best economic growth in the entire European Union, which may be surprising given the visible threats to the Polish economy. The main driving force is still household consumption. Larger expenditures on the defense sector and growing wages in the public sector have a positive impact. However, investment is still lacking – although in the second quarter, investments increased by 2.7% year on year.
Outside the investment factor, what happens in foreign markets is also important. This remains a threat to the Polish economy – especially the situation in the German industry. Poland and Germany have strong trade ties – as 28% of Polish exports go to the German market. Of course, Germany is no longer as dependent on energy from Russia, like all of Europe – but what is happening on foreign markets is not conducive to the German economy.
“The slowing economic growth in the United States and the uncertain situation regarding the Chinese economy – which are two important trading partners of Germany – are unfavorable. This is reflected in Polish exports, as we are significant suppliers of parts and components used by the German industrial sector for their further export,” said Grzegorz Sielewicz, Chief Economist of COFACE in the Central and Eastern Europe region.
“Fortunately, household consumption remains the main driving force of the Polish GDP. We still have a relatively good situation in the job market, with low unemployment rate and rising wages. Even though the consumer is rather picky and price sensitive, the savings rate is being rebuilt. We see that savings have been growing for the last two, three quarters, or even a little longer. Therefore, the increased income that households have is not entirely spent on more expenses. In the growth structure of the GDP in 2025, we expect the share of investment to finally increase. Household consumption will stabilize, and may even slightly decrease, but investments should speed up thanks to the realization of investment projects as part of KPO and the new EU budget. This should support the Polish economy. We expect that in 2024 the Polish economy will grow by 3%, and next year by 3.5%. I hope that data for the next year we will revise upwards – i.e., that the situation in foreign markets, especially in Western Europe, will be improving and this will have a positive effect on our economy,” concludes Grzegorz Sielewicz.
Source: https://managerplus.pl/ozywienie-gospodarcze-w-polsce-solidny-wzrost-ale-inwestycje-i-eksport-wciaz-wyzwaniem-70769
