In the third quarter of 2025, 85,368 new businesses were registered in Poland, just 27 more than a year earlier, while 101 companies declared bankruptcy, three fewer than in Q3 2024, according to data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS). At first glance, these figures suggest stability, but economists emphasize that behind this apparent balance lie deep structural changes in the Polish economy.
“The economy is entering a phase of stabilization, yet these numbers mask significant structural shifts. We are facing stagnation in new registrations and bankruptcies, despite improving macroeconomic conditions,” said Mariusz Zielonka, chief economist at the Lewiatan Confederation.
Growth Without Momentum – Businesses Cautious Despite Better Conditions
After a slow start to the year, Q3 2025 brought a stabilization in business registration activity, but without a visible rebound. The number of new enterprises remains slightly below Q2 2025 levels (88,728), indicating that entrepreneurs remain cautious.
According to economists, the lack of stronger growth despite improving economic conditions and a lower NBP reference rate of 4.25% (as of November) stems from persistent cost and structural barriers, including:
- Rising labor costs,
- Wage pressure,
- Shortage of skilled workers,
- High operating costs in traditional industries.
“Despite a looser monetary policy and signs of inflation stabilization, entrepreneurs still don’t see a lasting improvement in business conditions. Most prefer to wait things out rather than expand,” Zielonka added.
Shifts in Structure: Services Grow, Retail Shrinks
While the overall number of registrations remained stable, the structure of new businesses is undergoing a clear transformation. The latest GUS data show an ongoing polarization of the Polish economy – robust growth in knowledge-based sectors contrasts with a sharp decline in traditional industries.
- Professional, scientific, and technical services saw a 13.4% year-on-year increase in new registrations.
- Trade and vehicle repair recorded a 22.5% drop, the largest decline since 2019.
This indicates that Poles are increasingly choosing low-barrier, flexible, digital, and remote business models, rather than capital-intensive or highly regulated industries.
“New business registrations are concentrated in sectors where one can start quickly and minimize risk. There’s a visible shift away from retail and traditional services toward microbusinesses built on expertise and knowledge,” said the Lewiatan economist.
Bankruptcies Stable but Smallest Firms Suffer Most
The number of bankruptcies in Q3 2025 – 101 cases – remains low and stable, but a closer look reveals rising pressure among microenterprises.
- The trade sector saw the largest increase, with 10 more bankruptcies year-on-year.
- Sole proprietorships were the only legal form with more bankruptcies (+5 cases).
- Limited liability companies recorded a decrease of 5 bankruptcies.
This means that although the total number of bankruptcies hasn’t increased, the market is becoming structurally more unequal. The smallest firms – often family-run and with limited access to financing – bear the highest adaptation costs amid a challenging economic environment.
“It’s the smallest players who pay the highest price for the slowdown and rising operational costs. Larger companies are more resilient due to better access to capital and their ability to pass costs on to customers,” Zielonka noted.
Signs of Economic Transformation
GUS data suggest that behind the surface stability lies a shift in Poland’s business model. New firms are increasingly being established in:
- Consulting and IT services,
- Digital marketing,
- Online education and training,
- Specialized B2B services.
This shows that the Polish economy is gradually moving toward higher value-added services, while the role of trade and small-scale crafts continues to decline. The COVID-19 pandemic and the rise of remote work accelerated this shift, changing both entrepreneurial and consumer preferences.
At the same time, bankruptcy data reveal rising cost sensitivity among microbusinesses, especially regarding energy and wage expenses.
Cautious Optimism, but Structural Imbalance Persists
The combination of registration and bankruptcy data indicates that the Polish economy has entered a phase of stabilization without a clear growth impulse. Falling inflation and lower interest rates create more favorable macroeconomic conditions, but microeconomic factors – such as costs, demographics, and labor shortages – continue to constrain entrepreneurship.
“It’s not a lack of ambition, but a lack of financial and cost flexibility that’s holding back new business formation. Polish entrepreneurs are adapting, but selectively – choosing modern, low-cost sectors. This isn’t stagnation without movement, but rather a transformation toward a service- and knowledge-based economy,” summarized Mariusz Zielonka.
Q3 2025 confirms a numerical stabilization in the number of active firms in Poland but also a deepening polarization within the SME sector. The economy is slowing in raw figures but accelerating in structure – shifting toward services, technology, and expert-driven industries.
As Poland moves into 2026, it does so with a more diversified yet more selective business landscape, reflecting both resilience and adaptation to a new economic reality.
