New data from Statistics Poland (GUS) indicates a continued slowdown in Poland’s residential construction sector, with developers showing limited confidence in a sales rebound for 2025. In all key categories—completed homes, construction starts, and building permits—results for the first four months of the year were weaker than those from the same period in 2024.
According to GUS, the number of residential units completed in April 2025 was up 2.6% compared to March and 1.2% higher than in April 2024. However, for the January–April period, only 62,200 homes were completed nationwide—the weakest four-month result in seven years, with the last comparable drop recorded in 2018.
Developer Activity Remains Weak
In April 2025, a total of 16,100 units were completed, with developers accounting for 10,000 of them, marking a 6% month-on-month and 4% year-on-year increase. Despite this, experts warn that such marginal gains are insufficient to revise projections that 2025 could be the weakest year for completions in the past five years.
These weak figures trace back to the first half of 2023, when developers drastically slowed new project starts amid soaring mortgage costs and a glut of unused permits secured in 2022 under favorable legislative conditions. Monthly starts dropped from 12,000 in 2021–2022 to just 8,000 in early 2023.
As a result, the consequences of this slowdown are now materializing. Between January and April 2025, developers completed 37,700 units, 3% less than in the same period last year. Individual investors contributed 22,900 units, a 4.5% year-on-year decline. These trends are expected to persist throughout the year.
Individual vs. Developer Contributions
In April 2025, developers accounted for 62% of all units completed. Individual investors—households building for themselves—showed more stability, maintaining a consistent 35–38% share of total completions. In April, their share stood at 36%, with a 1.33% year-on-year decline and a slight month-on-month drop.
While monthly completions by developers grew modestly, the cumulative figures for 2025 reflect an overall decrease, pointing to a continuation of last year’s stagnation in the housing market.
Sharp Decline in Permits
In April, the number of building permits issued fell sharply. The total of under 19,000 permits issued was 14.5% lower than in March and 24% down compared to April 2024. Developers obtained 10,700 permits, while individual investors received 7,800. The dip in developer activity stands out, especially given their historical average of over 14,000 permits issued in April over the past five years.
For the January–April period, developers secured 41,100 permits, a 25% year-on-year drop, while individual investors obtained 26,100, marking a 4.7% increase. Overall, however, the number of permits still significantly exceeds the number of projects actually started.
Starts Slow Down Again After Temporary Uptick
While data after March suggested a possible rebound in project starts, April reversed that optimism. All investor categories began construction on 20,100 units, 8% fewer than in March and 5.5% below April 2024 levels. Both developers and individual investors contributed to the downturn.
Looking at the first four months of 2025, developers started 11% fewer projects than in the same period in 2024. This slowdown is partly due to the exceptionally high number of starts in early 2024, fueled by strong demand under the now-suspended “Safe 2% Mortgage” program.
Permit Surplus Still Growing—But Signs of Change Appear
GUS data also reveals a persistent gap between issued permits and actual construction starts. Since January, 5,100 more permits have been issued than projects started—meaning 6% of permits have not yet translated into actual building.
Interestingly, over half of this surplus—2,600 permits—comes from municipal and social rental housing, hinting at increased interest in affordable rental developments. However, the pace of actual construction in this category remains slow.
Developers, who deferred 25% of issued permits in 2024, have postponed only 5% so far in 2025. This shift suggests a possible change in strategy, and may signal a gradual reduction in the permit backlog accumulated during 2022–2023.
“April’s data confirms that residential construction in Poland remains in a slowdown phase, especially among developers. While slight month-on-month improvements are visible, broader trends point to weaker activity than in previous years. Still, some indicators—such as lower deferral rates for permits—may hint at a shift in developer sentiment,” writes Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Head of Market Research at Otodom.
Source: ceo.com.pl
Author: Katarzyna Kuniewicz, Head of Market Research, Otodom
