April showed that developers are playing an increasingly differentiated game across Poland’s largest housing markets. Data from BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl clearly indicates that in some metropolitan areas developers are increasing the supply of relatively cheaper apartments, while in others they are doing the opposite — limiting that segment and bringing mainly more expensive projects to the market.
“For people planning to buy an apartment, this is not just a statistical curiosity. It is a change with very practical consequences, because it affects not only average price levels, but above all the range of apartments that buyers can actually afford,” says Marek Wielgo, an expert at RynekPierwotny.pl.
Demand surged, then quickly weakened
The beginning of 2026 suggested a strong revival in apartment sales. In Warsaw, developers sold 1,797 units in March, compared with 1,442 in April, a month-on-month decline of 20 percent. In Kraków, sales fell to 670 apartments from 714 in March, down 6 percent. In Wrocław, they dropped to 574 from 683, down 16 percent, while in the Tricity they fell to 544 from 692, a decline of 21 percent.
The sharpest fall was recorded in Łódź, where sales decreased from 548 to 402 apartments, down 27 percent. The only market to break this trend was the cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, where sales increased from 451 to 462 units.
It should also be noted, however, that despite these declines, April sales results in most cities remained above the monthly average recorded in 2025. In Warsaw, sales were 15 percent higher than last year’s monthly average; in Kraków, 18 percent higher; and in Poznań, 14 percent higher. The exception was the Tricity, where sales were about 7 percent below the 2025 average.
The source of March’s surge in demand is clearly visible in the mortgage market. According to the Credit Information Bureau, the number of people applying for a mortgage reached 63,300 in March, before falling to 42,300 in April — a drop of as much as 33 percent.
“This is why apartment sales in April were 15 percent lower than in the very strong month of March, which was an exceptional period. Buyers rushed to purchase homes at that time, fearing further increases in borrowing costs and a decline in creditworthiness. We expect demand to gradually weaken in the coming months as March reservations are gradually cleared,” comments Jan Dziekoński, chief economist at RynekPierwotny.pl.
Supply is more cautious, but highly uneven
According to data from BIG DATA RynekPierwotny.pl, developers clearly slowed the pace of introducing new apartments to the market, although not everywhere to the same extent. In Warsaw, the number of apartments launched for sale fell from 1,019 in March to 919 in April, a decline of 10 percent. In Poznań, the drop was much deeper: from 480 to just 141 units, down 71 percent. Kraków stands out even more, with supply shrinking from 1,019 to 195 apartments, a fall of as much as 81 percent.
The situation looked completely different in other markets. In Wrocław, the number of new apartments rose from 494 in March to 935 in April, an increase of 89 percent. In the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, it increased from 124 to 495 units, up 299 percent. In the Tricity, it rose from 468 to 549 units, an increase of 17 percent.
Moreover, April supply results in some metropolitan areas were weak even compared with the 2025 average. In Kraków, around 70 percent fewer apartments were launched for sale than the average last year. In Poznań, the figure was about 62 percent lower, while in Warsaw it was around 24 percent lower. There were exceptions: in Wrocław, developers introduced around 70 percent more apartments than last year’s average, while in Katowice and the other cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, the figure was around 9 percent higher.
“These differences are not accidental. They show that developers are adjusting their strategies to local conditions — sales levels, competition and the structure of the available offer,” explains Marek Wielgo.
The offer is growing, but not everywhere
The relationship between demand and supply is reflected in changes in the number of apartments available on the market. In April, the offer increased in most metropolitan areas. The largest rise was recorded in Wrocław, where the number of available apartments grew from 10,000 to 10,500, an increase of 5 percent. Slight increases were also recorded in Łódź, from 11,300 to 11,500 units; in the cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, from 11,000 to 11,200 units; and in the Tricity, from 8,700 to 8,800 units.
At the same time, the offer shrank in the three largest markets where developers most strongly limited new supply. In Warsaw, it fell from 16,800 to 16,600 apartments. In Kraków, it decreased from 12,300 to 11,900, while in Poznań it declined from 8,100 to 7,800.
“This is very important information for buyers, because these are precisely the markets where apartment availability is beginning to deteriorate,” comments Marek Wielgo.
The key change: the cheapest apartments are disappearing
The most important development concerns the cheapest segment of the market, defined as the quarter of apartments with the lowest price per square metre. In Warsaw, around 4,200 apartments were available below the upper price threshold defining this segment in December last year, which was PLN 14,400 per square metre. By April, that number had fallen to around 3,400 — a decline of as much as 20 percent.
In the Tricity, the offer of the cheapest units fell over the same period from 2,100 to 1,900, down 10 percent. In Poznań, it dropped from around 2,000 to 1,600, down 19 percent, while in Wrocław it decreased from 2,400 to 2,200, down 7 percent. In practice, this means that apartments available to buyers with limited creditworthiness are disappearing faster than the market can replace them.
The opposite situation can be seen in the cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, where the number of the cheapest apartments rose from 3,000 to 3,200, an increase of 7 percent. In Kraków, it also increased slightly, from 2,700 to 2,800, up 3 percent. In Łódź, the figure remained stable at around 2,800 units.
This difference almost perfectly matches what is happening with prices. In Warsaw, prices are rising the fastest. Poznań is also seeing a clear increase, while in Łódź and the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis prices remain virtually unchanged.
Prices are rising where the cheaper segment is shrinking
In Warsaw, the average price per square metre increased in April to nearly PLN 20,000, around 2 percent higher than in March. The capital has therefore effectively reached a psychological threshold that, until recently, seemed distant. Year on year, this means an increase of around 12 percent, with the scale of price growth in the first months of 2026 exceeding the pace observed over much of the previous two years.
Outside Warsaw, an increase in the average price per square metre was recorded only in Poznań, where it reached around PLN 14,300, up 1 percent month on month. In the remaining metropolitan areas, April was marked by stability. In the Tricity, the average price was around PLN 17,700 per square metre; in Kraków, PLN 17,100; in Wrocław, PLN 15,300; and in Łódź, PLN 11,500. In the cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, April brought a 1 percent decline in the average price, to around PLN 11,200 per square metre.
“If the lower end of the offer disappears from the market, the average price rises even without changes in developers’ price lists. This is why Warsaw and Poznań are now becoming more expensive faster than cities where a large number of relatively affordable apartments is still available,” notes Marek Wielgo.
He adds that higher-end projects are having an increasingly strong impact on average prices per square metre, especially in Warsaw.
Marek Wielgo points out that the housing market can no longer be described with one universal diagnosis. This is because local conditions are increasingly decisive for the real situation facing buyers.
In Warsaw, Poznań and the Tricity, the choice of financially accessible apartments is steadily shrinking. Even with moderate changes in average prices, real affordability is deteriorating because some of the cheapest units are disappearing from the market.
In Łódź, Kraków and the cities of the Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolis, the situation looks different. The offer remains large or is even growing, the number of the cheapest apartments is not falling, and prices remain stable. This means buyers have more choice and greater room for negotiation.
