The percentage of employers who believe that their business conditions may worsen this year has increased by 10 percentage points compared to last year. Only one in seven companies expects an improvement in their situation, according to the eighth edition of the “Polish Labor Market Barometer” prepared by Personnel Service.
Data from the latest “Polish Labor Market Barometer” by Personnel Service indicate that entrepreneurs’ concerns about the condition of their companies have grown. This year, 33% of them fear a worsening situation, compared to 23% last year. These concerns are equally strong regardless of company size—35% of the smallest firms, 38% of medium-sized enterprises, and 26% of the largest companies share these worries. At the same time, only 14% of employers expect an improvement in conditions. The group of entrepreneurs anticipating stability remains stable—40% this year compared to 41% in 2024.
“In recent years, we have been shocked by external circumstances such as the pandemic and Russia’s aggression, but the labor market remained strong. Now we see that this positive picture is starting to change. Uncertainty dominates, affecting both employees and employers,” observes Krzysztof Inglot, labor market expert and founder of Personnel Service. “However, we still have an employee-driven market, where employers compete for workers,” he adds.
Rising Costs and Workforce Decline Are Major Challenges
According to Kamil Sobolewski, chief economist at Employers of Poland, the main challenges for employers are rising costs, including energy prices and wages—in other words, inflation. In total, 35% of respondents identified these factors as key concerns.
“When we talk about the labor market, demographics play a crucial role. In Poland, for the past 30 years, the workforce has grown by 1% annually, but over the next 30 years, it will shrink by 1% annually. If Poland’s average GDP growth rate was 3% and largely driven by employment growth, then now GDP growth will be stifled by declining employment,” explains Kamil Sobolewski.
Fewer Recruitment Plans for 2025
Experts at Personnel Service note that economic conditions are leading to fewer recruitment plans. In 2025, only 16% of businesses plan to increase employment, a sharp drop of 12 percentage points compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, the percentage of companies planning workforce reductions remains similar—17% (up 1 percentage point from 2024). When analyzing layoffs, company size plays a role: 25% of medium-sized firms, 21% of large companies, and only 6% of small businesses are considering reducing staff. On the other hand, more than half of companies (53%) intend to maintain current employment levels, a 5 percentage point increase from last year.
Salaries and Retention Strategies
Employee retention remains a priority for many companies, which means offering competitive salaries. However, only 24% of employers plan to increase wages, a sharp drop of 19 percentage points compared to the previous survey. Economists estimate that wages will grow by 7-8% this year, although in January, the year-over-year increase was 9.2%. Nearly half (47%) of employers plan to keep salaries at their current level, while 14% anticipate wage cuts—an increase of 7 percentage points from last year.
“Salaries remain a key tool in the fight for talent, but it’s clear that companies are striving to balance competitiveness with costs. Wage growth between 6-10% is now the standard, but more firms are opting for moderate raises or even freezing salaries,” summarizes Krzysztof Inglot.
Employee Sentiment and Job Market Outlook
Personnel Service analysis shows that employees are slightly more optimistic about the job market—43% of Poles rate it positively, including 8% who consider it very good. Although this represents only a 5 percentage point decline from last year, it primarily reflects an increase in pessimism. About 15% of Poles view their situation as bad or very bad, while 37% have a neutral perspective. Future expectations remain cautious. Only 11% of employees anticipate an improvement in their situation, while over half (55%) expect no changes in the coming year. Meanwhile, 15% foresee deterioration.
Pressure for higher wages has eased. While 58% of Poles plan to seek higher earnings in the next 12 months, only 30% intend to request a raise from their current employer, the same as last year. More men than women plan to take this step (34% vs. 27%). Additionally, 17% of Poles intend to look for a better-paying job, and 11% are considering part-time work. Nearly one in five (19%) do not plan to pursue higher earnings, while 23% remain undecided.
Demand for Work Flexibility
Poles increasingly value workplace flexibility. About 62% support a four-day workweek, and 42% favor salary transparency.
“Transparency will help equalize wages between men and women in the same positions. A shortened workweek is, in my opinion, a luxury indicator, available only to highly successful companies,” argues Krzysztof Inglot.
Investment and Foreign Workforce Trends
The chief economist at Employers of Poland highlighted investment trends. According to the “Polish Labor Market Barometer,” 43% of companies plan to invest in 2025.
“This is still too low. In my opinion, the rate should be significantly higher,” says Kamil Sobolewski.
The report also indicates that foreigners make up 7% of Poland’s workforce. In January 2025, 1.2 million foreign workers were registered with the Social Insurance Institution (ZUS). Ukrainian employees account for 28% of foreign workers, a 15% year-over-year decrease. Experts attribute this decline to market adaptation, as more Ukrainians are now securing higher-level positions.
“I expect that after the war and border reopening, 1 million Ukrainians will return to work in our country,” predicts Krzysztof Inglot.
Source: Manager Plus
