According to BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland’s report, At a Glance: Investment Market in Poland in Q4 2024, the sector experienced spectacular results, particularly in the last quarter of the year. Transaction volumes more than doubled compared to 2023. Despite geopolitical risks, the outlook for future growth remains positive.
Offices and Retail Lead the Market
In 2024, Poland’s commercial real estate market saw impressive growth, with transaction values exceeding €5.05 billion, more than twice the volume of the previous year and significantly above expectations. Large transactions returned to the market, both in portfolio deals and individual property sales. While this value still falls short of the country’s full market potential, investors are sensing renewed momentum. The highest transaction volumes were recorded in the office and retail sectors, each accounting for 32% of the total.
The office real estate market saw 45 transactions worth a total of €1.64 billion in 2024, a fourfold increase from the previous year. Meanwhile, investment transactions in Polish retail properties exceeded €1.6 billion. The average size of acquired retail properties was 22,000 square meters, 7,500 square meters more than in 2023.
Industrial and logistics properties were the third most sought-after assets in 2024, capturing a 25% market share. Deals worth over €1.26 billion were concluded between January and December, reflecting a 30% increase compared to 2023. American investors were the most active buyers in this segment, investing over €350 million, nearly 28% of the annual volume.
The residential rental sector also gained traction, with transaction values reaching €340 million—a 170% increase from the previous year.
“The year 2024 ended on a high note in terms of transaction volume. However, it is important to note that this result was primarily driven by four large-scale transactions, mainly in the retail sector, including the acquisition of Cromwell’s shopping center portfolio and two shopping malls—Magnolia Park in Wrocław and Silesia City Center in Katowice. The sale of the Warsaw Unit office building also boosted last year’s figures. It is difficult to predict whether similar transactions will occur in 2025. Nevertheless, the market has clearly revived, and there will be more activity in mid-sized transactions ranging from €10 to €50 million,” said Mateusz Skubiszewski, Head of Capital Markets at BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.
Positive Market Outlook
BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland analysts indicate that falling interest rates in the eurozone will encourage greater investor activity. Additionally, there is an increasing influx of capital from the USA, the Czech Republic, and France. Favorable macroeconomic forecasts for Poland compared to the European average and planned investments from the National Recovery Plan for 2025-2026 further strengthen the market’s positive outlook.
Geopolitical uncertainty and the risk of trade wars continue to impact the market, affecting capitalization rates. In response, investors are increasingly opting for smaller properties with longer weighted average lease terms (WAULT). German and Asian capital remains inactive, but domestic investors are showing growing interest. The market is also eagerly awaiting the introduction of REIT legislation, which could further stimulate investments.
By the end of 2024, the market had reached a balance between buyers and sellers, with capitalization rates for key asset classes increasing by an additional 25 basis points. Based on concluded and planned transactions, it appears that this phase of the economic cycle has peaked, and returns on investment across most asset classes should see noticeable growth in the coming quarters.
Largest Transactions of 2024
Retail Real Estate Market
Last year saw three major retail property transactions. Silesia City Center (88,000 square meters) and Magnolia Park (100,000 square meters) changed owners, with South African fund NEPI Rockcastle acquiring them for €405 million and €373 million, respectively. Another key deal was Czech investor Star Capital Finance’s acquisition of Cromwell’s 219,000 square meters retail portfolio for €285 million. BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland facilitated this transaction.
Office Real Estate Market
Investor interest in office properties rebounded in 2024. The largest single-asset transaction was the acquisition of Warsaw Unit by Eastnine AB from Belgian company Ghelamco for approximately €280 million. The second-largest deal was the purchase of the P180 office building in Warsaw (€100 million) by Investika Real Estate Fund & BUD Holdings from Skanska. Another key transaction was Sona Asset Management’s sale of a 49% stake in the CPI portfolio, encompassing over 315,000 square meters of office space.
Industrial and Logistics Real Estate Market
The largest industrial and logistics transaction in 2024 was Czech fund Investika’s acquisition of 7R’s property portfolio for approximately €143 million. White Star followed closely, acquiring control over Diamond Business Parks in Gliwice, Ursus, and Stryków for €132 million. Panattoni was the most active seller, accounting for nearly 40% of the total transaction volume, with 7R holding a 19% market share.
Source: ManagerPlus
