In line with market consensus, Poland’s Monetary Policy Council left interest rates unchanged. The RPP’s next decisions will depend on incoming macroeconomic data and its assessment of geopolitical risks, with particular attention to the situation in the Middle East. Any escalation of tensions in the region could lead to a further increase in energy commodity prices, complicating an already ambiguous economic outlook.
Persistently elevated oil prices also remain an important factor, putting pressure on both production costs and consumer sentiment. The picture is further complicated by mixed labour market data — on the one hand pointing to the continued resilience of the economy, and on the other signalling the first signs of cooling.
