According to Mariusz Zielonka, Chief Economist at Lewiatan Confederation, recent statements by National Bank of Poland (NBP) Governor Adam Glapiński suggest interest rates will remain unchanged. However, Zielonka notes that the macroeconomic situation may justify one more modest cut—of 25 basis points.
The economist highlights several factors that should be considered in monetary policy decisions. One is the risk of a new trade war between the US and the EU, as announced by the US administration. Additionally, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Polish industry has fallen below the neutral 50-point mark, signaling clear signs of slowdown in the sector.
Another important factor is inflation, which recent data shows has declined to 4.2%. While still above the NBP’s inflation target, its steady decrease might prompt reconsideration of a more accommodative monetary policy.
Zielonka also points out that since June 1, an additional element of uncertainty has entered the macroeconomic environment: the newly elected president’s ability to exercise veto power. Although from an economic and business perspective such vetoes may be unjustified, their use could be an attempt by the new head of state to assert a strong position. Such actions may add pressure to the economy in the coming months.
In summary, the Lewiatan chief economist emphasizes that despite the NBP’s rhetoric signaling rate stability, there are grounds for a symbolic rate cut. Future decisions will increasingly depend not only on macroeconomic indicators but also on political factors that could shape Poland’s investment climate and economic stability in the second half of 2025.
Source: ceo.com.pl
