Only a month ago, fuel prices in Poland were among the lowest in Europe. Now, however, their day-to-day increase is one of the sharpest on the continent, and businesses are already feeling the impact.
“We estimate that prices have risen by around 15% month on month, and sometimes even more, while increases elsewhere in Europe usually do not exceed 5%,” said Dariusz Matulewicz, president of the West Pomeranian Association of Road Carriers.
“Businesses are facing considerable uncertainty. Geopolitics is clearly influencing the situation,” added Professor Aneta Zelek.
“Fuel prices affect the entire economy”
Fuel prices have an enormous impact on the entire economy. The increases recorded in recent days are already affecting businesses in the transport, shipping and logistics sector, as well as suppliers, manufacturers and companies operating in the food and services industries.
There is no panic yet, as prices have returned to levels last seen at the end of April and the beginning of May. However, while there may be no panic, there is certainly growing concern.
“Even temporary periods of stability on global markets do not reassure companies whose financial liquidity and daily operations depend on fuel prices. It must be admitted that developments since the end of the first quarter of 2026 resemble an action film with numerous unexpected twists,” said Hanna Mojsiuk, president of the Northern Chamber of Commerce in Szczecin.
“We have seen the unexpected outbreak of war in the Middle East, the difficult situation surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, repeated announcements of agreements and then negotiations being broken off. It is extremely difficult to predict what the situation will look like in the coming months.”
“Since the beginning of July, we have observed a significant increase in wholesale fuel prices. We are talking about changes of up to 20% month on month. This is being felt by businesses, but also by consumers,” Mojsiuk added.
“It is also worth noting that support programmes in Poland have now ended. Given the current geopolitical situation, this may have happened slightly too early. Fuel price increases in Poland are currently higher than in other European countries.”
According to the president of the Northern Chamber of Commerce, there is one important economic principle that must be remembered when discussing fuel prices.
“When fuel becomes more expensive, the increase soon affects the prices of all products and services. Unless the situation in the Middle East begins moving towards peace again, we will enter the autumn season with substantial price increases in both manufacturing and services,” she said.
Wholesale fuel prices rise 15% in just three weeks
According to the president of the West Pomeranian Association of Road Carriers, fuel price instability is having a serious impact on the profitability of transport, shipping and logistics companies.
“The situation is comparable to what we experienced in the spring. In just three weeks, the wholesale price of one litre of fuel increased by more than PLN 0.70. When fuel is purchased for an entire fleet, the additional costs can amount to tens of thousands of złoty,” Matulewicz said.
“Some business owners believed that May and June would bring stability. Instead, they are now facing further increases and renewed uncertainty.”
Paradoxically, there are still some positive factors providing limited support to transport companies.
“We have a large number of orders and a favourable euro exchange rate. Without these factors, we would once again be talking about an almost dramatic situation,” Matulewicz explained.
“Economic conditions are supporting Polish transport companies, but profits and margins are being consumed by higher fuel prices. Companies are therefore continuing to operate, but they are not generating profits.”
Geopolitics will determine the coming months
What might the next few months bring? A geopolitical agreement remains possible, but it is unclear whether it is likely.
“The situation is currently extremely uncertain. Geopolitics remains the most important factor shaping the conditions in which the global economy operates,” said Professor Aneta Zelek of the West Pomeranian Business School.
“I see two possible scenarios. The first assumes that an agreement between the United States and Iran enters into force, which could bring greater stability.”
“The second, unfortunately, involves the continued influence of Donald Trump’s posts on X, which may still determine the direction of events from one day to the next.”
According to Professor Zelek, 2026 has been exceptionally volatile from the very beginning.
“Poland had assumed highly optimistic economic growth and expected GDP growth of approximately 4% by the end of the year. Today, that appears increasingly unrealistic. All we can do is continue monitoring how the situation develops.”
Source: Managerplus.pl
