The October survey from Statistics Poland (GUS) points to a moderate deterioration in economic sentiment — across all major sectors, confidence indicators were either lower than in the previous month or signalled stagnation without the anticipated rebound. The sharpest decline was recorded in accommodation and food services, where the general sentiment index dropped from +5.0 in September to –1.2 in October.
Manufacturing and Construction Enter a Clearly Negative Trend
- Manufacturing: –8.0 (down from –6.5 m/m)
- Construction: –7.3 (down from –5.3 in September)
Both sectors are now significantly below their long-term averages — suggesting not just short-term volatility, but a deeper weakening of production and investment activity.
Trade Slows Less Sharply — But Optimism Still Absent
- Retail trade: –1.6 (an improvement from –2.4, but still negative)
- Wholesale trade: –0.8 (slightly worse than a month earlier)
The consumer-facing sectors are not yet signalling the rebound that was expected following improvements in real household incomes. Companies remain cautious in their sales outlook for Q4.
Digital and Financial Sectors Remain Most Resilient
- Information & Communications: +10.6
- Finance & Insurance: +23.6 (the strongest index in the entire economy)
However, both sectors remain below their long-term averages, as GUS notes — confidence is solid, but not exuberant.
War in Ukraine — Effects Still Present but Not Disruptive
Between 92% and 97% of firms across most sectors report no or only minor negative impacts from the war on their operations.
Serious consequences are cited by 7–14% of companies, most frequently in transport and logistics.
Biggest Threat — Rising Operating Costs
In follow-up questions, firms consistently identified three dominant cost pressures heading into Q4:
- Labour costs (cited by 70–82% of companies across all sectors)
- Energy and fuel prices (as high as 92% in food services)
- Rising rents and leasing costs (now mentioned by over half of retail firms)
Conclusion
October 2025 marks a turning point — a transition from neutral stability to a more visible weakening of expectations, especially in manufacturing and construction. Elevated cost pressures and reduced investment appetite (over 20% of companies are postponing decisions) are likely to restrain further economic acceleration in the coming months.
