Although the number of business insolvencies in Poland declined slightly in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period last year, the situation facing Polish companies remains difficult. According to the latest report by Coface, 2,632 businesses declared insolvency between January and June, around 1.6% fewer than in the corresponding period of 2025.
At the same time, rising fuel, raw material and energy prices—driven by developments in the Middle East, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the conflict between the United States and Iran—are placing an increasingly heavy burden on Polish businesses. What factors shaped insolvency trends, and what is the outlook for the second half of 2026?
In recent months, the Polish economy has benefited from government support, with the state-run CPN programme significantly cushioning the impact of the energy shock. Geopolitical disruption also coincided with an inflow of funding from the SAFE programme.
Businesses, however, continued to face high operating costs. Despite government intervention, fuel prices remained elevated. Fertilisers, aluminium and petroleum products also became more expensive. As a result, producer prices increased by 2.4% year on year in May—the first such rise since 2023.
What Is Behind the Stabilisation in Business Insolvencies?
According to Coface experts, one of the main reasons for the stabilisation in insolvency numbers is the growing maturity of Polish companies in managing restructuring processes. In the first half of 2026, as many as 92.44% of insolvent businesses opted for restructuring proceedings rather than bankruptcy.
This approach offers more options to both business owners and creditors. In many cases, the implementation of corrective measures allows companies to continue operating. The growing awareness among Polish entrepreneurs of restructuring procedures also means that future insolvency statistics are likely to be shaped primarily by macroeconomic conditions rather than by companies’ ability to manage crises.
“It is worth emphasising that one of the factors mitigating the effects of the energy shock faced by the Polish economy was the strong financial liquidity of businesses. Polish companies had been systematically building up these reserves in previous years, mainly as a result of lower investment activity,” said Dr Mateusz Dadej, Chief Economist at Coface Poland and the Central and Eastern Europe Region.
“However, Statistics Poland reports that the cash ratio had already fallen significantly in the first quarter of 2026—from 48.9% to 43.7%. This shows that companies actively used their liquidity reserves to survive a period of elevated costs,” he added.
“Funding from the EU’s SAFE programme was also highly significant, contributing to a 143% year-on-year increase in industrial orders in May. These funds are gradually beginning to affect the wider economy—first the industrial sector, followed by metallurgy and construction. The resilience demonstrated by the Polish economy so far has therefore largely resulted from public-sector support,” the economist said.
Construction Remains the Weakest Link in the Economy
Despite the stabilisation in the overall number of insolvencies, challenges related to operating costs and market conditions continue to affect the financial health of Polish businesses.
According to Coface’s latest report, service companies accounted for the largest share of insolvencies in the first half of 2026, representing 29% of the total, or 758 businesses. They were followed by construction companies, which accounted for 20%, or 529 businesses, and trading companies, with 19%, or 500 businesses.
Manufacturing was responsible for 16% of cases, involving 431 businesses. Transport accounted for 12%, or 319 businesses, while agriculture represented 4%, or 95 businesses.
The largest year-on-year increase in insolvencies was recorded in the construction sector, at 12.6%. Coface experts noted that the industry is still experiencing the effects of a harsh winter and the delayed impact of EU funding, including resources from Poland’s National Recovery Plan, on the wider economy.
Moreover, since monetary policy began to tighten in 2022, construction has steadily increased its share of total business insolvencies.
The transport sector is still reporting a year-on-year decline in insolvencies, but the significant increase in fuel prices observed in recent months has clearly weakened its financial position. While the decline stood at 36.5% in the first quarter of 2026, it slowed to just 11.6% in the second quarter.
Given the current volatility in energy prices, the sector is likely to remain under pressure from geopolitical factors.
At the same time, the retail sector and industries linked to tourism remain in relatively good condition. The CPN programme played an important role by helping to maintain stable consumption growth. In addition, higher aviation fuel prices—and consequently more expensive airline tickets—probably contributed to an increase in domestic tourism activity.
Economic Outlook for the Second Half of 2026
Coface experts expect business conditions for Polish companies to improve in the coming months. The absorption of EU funding should accelerate, while the industrial sector will gradually begin fulfilling orders generated by the SAFE programme.
On the other hand, the greatest challenge in the second half of 2026 is likely to be the increase in energy commodity prices caused by renewed escalation in the Middle East.
Global oil inventories have recently been steadily declining, while the renewed blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has resulted in global fuel consumption once again exceeding production. Although it remains unclear when the market will reach a critical point, it is evident that, once it does, it will already be too late for an effective intervention.
Unfortunately, due to the strained condition of public finances, the government will not be able to provide the same level of support to Polish businesses this time.
“Despite the numerous risks, the outlook for the Polish economy remains favourable. According to Coface forecasts, Poland’s GDP will grow by 3.5% in 2026, while average annual inflation will amount to 3.3%,” said Dr Mateusz Dadej.
“Although this will be a relatively favourable stage of the economic cycle, the corporate sector is expected to experience a gradual increase in the number of insolvencies over the coming quarters. Aggregate demand should be supported by both private consumption and investment, but a series of commodity price shocks will pose a serious challenge to corporate risk management,” he added.
“In addition, the expected interest-rate cuts are likely to be postponed until the beginning of 2027. This means that businesses will have to operate in an environment of relatively high financing costs for longer. We therefore forecast that the total number of business insolvencies in 2026 will increase by approximately 3% compared with 2025,” the expert concluded.
