The first half of 2025 has brought yet another decline in Poland’s beer market, even amid a surge in the production and sales of non-alcoholic beer. According to the Union of Brewing Industry Employers – Polish Breweries (ZPPP – Browary Polskie), this downward trend is driven by poor weather conditions and increasingly negative public discourse around the beer industry. Additional challenges include rising operational costs and preparations for the upcoming deposit return system, set to launch in just three months, says the union’s newly appointed president, Mieszko Musiał.
“The brewing sector is facing numerous challenges, the most significant being volume decline. Since the beginning of the year, the market has contracted by 6%, and May alone saw a staggering 12% year-on-year drop in volume. This is yet another year of overall category decline,” Musiał told Newseria.
Beer Consumption Drops to 20-Year Low
According to NielsenIQ data, in 2024, Poles purchased 100 million fewer bottles and cans of beer compared to 2023 — the lowest volume in two decades. Sales of alcoholic lagers dropped by 3.1%, and strong beers by 3.8%. The downward trend is fueled by health-conscious behaviors and decreasing economic accessibility of beer. This trend has continued into 2025.
Bartłomiej Morzycki, general director of ZPPP – Browary Polskie, highlighted a nearly 4% year-on-year drop in domestic beer production as of April 2025, based on GUS data. He pointed to the unusually cold and rainy spring as a key factor.
“The beer season never really kicked off due to poor weather — and in this industry, we say weather sells beer. We expect the first half of the year to show an even deeper market decline, potentially approaching 10%. This is a serious drop, only partly offset by the growth in non-alcoholic beer sales,” Morzycki said.
Non-Alcoholic Beers Buck the Trend
According to the report “0.0% Revolution: Non-Alcoholic Beers Are Reshaping the Market”, the category has grown tenfold in volume over the past decade and now accounts for nearly 6.5% of the total beer market in Poland.
“While alcoholic beer is shrinking by a few percent each quarter, non-alcoholic beer is growing by double digits. In Q1 alone, we saw an 18% increase in non-alcoholic beer production, and in April it jumped by over 30%. This clearly shows it’s a fast-growing segment that is helping to partially offset volume losses from alcoholic beers,” Morzycki explained.
ZPPP forecasts that at the current growth rate, non-alcoholic beer could capture a double-digit market share by the end of the decade. However, Mieszko Musiał warns that this momentum is being threatened by negative narratives, including criticism of 0.0% beer advertising.
“We’re seeing increasing public attacks on the beer industry, including the surprising trend of criticizing non-alcoholic beer — often fueled by the spirits industry, which would prefer high-proof alcohols to dominate the market again. This poses a real risk of undermining the NoLo (no alcohol, low alcohol) trend and pushing society back toward less responsible drinking habits,” Musiał stated.
Promoting Responsible Consumption and ESG Initiatives
Musiał emphasized that promoting responsible alcohol consumption is a key part of the industry’s ESG strategies. The beer industry supports self-regulation and public awareness initiatives, such as labeling campaigns and training programs for alcohol sellers and hospitality workers.
One example is the “Become an RSA – Responsible Alcohol Seller” program, which trained over 10,000 participants in 2024 to ensure alcohol is sold responsibly, including how to refuse sales to minors.
Rising Costs, Regulatory Burdens, and the Deposit System
Industry representatives cite several other pressures, including lingering effects from the pandemic, war-related economic disruptions, and inflation. These have sharply increased production costs. On top of that, new regulatory requirements — especially the incoming deposit return system — are adding financial strain.
“The upcoming deposit system is a massive challenge. Operators only recently received licenses, making the post-summer launch timeline almost impossible to meet,” Musiał explained. “What’s worse, the system includes returnable glass bottles, which already have a 92% return rate in the beer segment. So we’re facing huge new costs with minimal environmental benefit. Moreover, beer is the only alcohol category in Poland subject to this system — which raises serious concerns.”
In conclusion, while the non-alcoholic beer segment offers a glimmer of hope for the brewing industry, the broader market continues to shrink. Rising costs, negative public sentiment, and mounting regulatory burdens leave the industry under considerable pressure heading into the second half of 2025.
