Poland’s economic growth is expected to remain higher than in most European Union countries and across the region, while inflation is projected to stay below the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) target, according to the latest Economic Courier published by ING Bank Śląski. Economists also assume further interest rate cuts—down to 3.25% by the end of 2026—as well as smooth financing of the state’s record borrowing needs. The analysis highlights that the economy is increasingly feeling the effects of shrinking access to cheap labor and growing labor shortages.
ING estimates that Poland’s GDP grew by 3.6% year on year in 2025, while Germany and parts of the region remained in stagnation. According to Rafał Benecki, Chief Economist at ING Bank Śląski, consumption was the main driver of growth, offsetting weak investment, including the delayed rebound of spending linked to the National Recovery Plan (KPO). On the supply side, modern services were expected to fill the gap left by weak industry—an arrangement ING describes as an atypical phase of the business cycle. At the same time, despite two years of growth, a decline in employment is said to be visible.
For 2026, ING forecasts GDP growth of 3.7% year on year, supported by more diversified growth drivers. Economists note that keeping consumption growth above 3% will be more challenging, as income growth is expected to slow from 5.3% to 2.0%. In such a scenario, households would need to reduce their savings rate to sustain the current pace of spending. ING nevertheless expects demand to be supported by EU funds and investment linked to European programs.
In ING’s scenario, EU grants play a key role. Excluding loans, they are expected to raise the fiscal impulse to around 3.0% of GDP in 2026, translating—according to the bank—into a 0.8 percentage point boost to consumption and investment. Economists also assume that part of the KPO grants, amounting to around 0.5% of GDP, will effectively strengthen growth only in 2027. At the same time, financing based on KPO loans is set to begin: ING points to EUR 29.4 billion in loans compared with EUR 25.3 billion in grants. This should increase the scale of investment, although its full impact will be spread over time.
ING expects inflation to remain low despite solid economic growth. The bank cites several factors: the absence of a consumption boom, a more cautious income policy, and lower wage pressure than in 2023–2024. The analysis highlights, among other things, a 3% increase in the minimum wage compared with around 20% in 2023–2024, as well as the lack of new social benefits in 2026. In addition, the current growth phase is expected to be less labor-intensive, driven by modern services rather than industry.
Another factor limiting price pressure, according to ING, is stronger competition from China. Economists also point out that monetary policy is more restrictive than the real interest rate alone might suggest, as the real appreciation of the złoty is the strongest since 2004–2008. In this environment, ING expects interest rates to be cut to 3.25% by the end of 2026, with a risk that they could fall even lower. The key issue will be whether inflation remains durably moderate amid still solid growth.
At the same time, the bank draws attention to strained public finances. Poland is expected to refinance record net borrowing needs again—ING estimates PLN 300 billion in 2026—and considers rapid fiscal adjustment unlikely. An additional challenge may be a revival in lending, which could limit the natural accumulation of savings in the banking sector, the main buyer of domestic government bonds. As a result, the importance of foreign inflows may increase.
ING assumes that EU funds—from the KPO, structural funds, and the SAFE program—will support the debt and currency markets. The analysis notes that the conversion of these funds is expected to take place off-market, increasing the monetary base and maintaining excess liquidity in the sector. The bank also emphasizes that deeper rate cuts in the U.S. and a weaker dollar could revive capital inflows into emerging markets. Poland is expected to stand out thanks to solid growth and a current account surplus (together with the capital account), which—according to ING—could offset NBP rate cuts and support the złoty’s strong position.
Against the global backdrop, ING economists describe a new geopolitical and trade reality following changes in U.S. policy, also pointing to the importance of the question of ending the war in Ukraine. According to the bank, the U.S. economy is expected to grow in 2026 at a pace close to its potential, around 2%—significantly faster than Europe. ING anticipates two Federal Reserve rate cuts and cites strong investment in artificial intelligence and a possible fiscal impulse ahead of the 2026 congressional elections as factors supporting growth. The choice of a new Fed chair may also influence the scale of future easing.
In the section on Europe, ING highlights the costs of excessive reliance on the United States for security and the loss of competitiveness linked to industrial offshoring to China and other countries. At the same time, the bank believes that forced adjustments—such as higher military and infrastructure spending and the SAFE program—could become a lever for growth in the coming years. China, according to the analysis, is expected to continue struggling with weak domestic demand, pursuing growth close to 5% through external expansion. Against this backdrop, ING also assumes further weakening of the U.S. dollar and the possibility of EUR/USD breaking above 1.20 in 2026.
ING economists emphasize that structural changes are emerging on the horizon for the Polish economy, driven by reduced availability of cheap labor and worker shortages. In their view, sustaining the positive trajectory of recent decades will require shifting workers into higher-productivity sectors. In practice, this means increased pressure on companies to modernize, automate, and invest in technologies that allow growth without expanding employment. ING identifies this factor as one of the key pillars of Poland’s medium-term growth resilience.
