In 2025, international real estate consultancy Cushman & Wakefield reviewed conditions in Poland’s warehouse and industrial space market. The data show that tenant activity increased by 14% year on year. At the same time, despite a slight uptick compared with the beginning of the year, developer activity remains noticeably lower than during the market’s rapid expansion phase—at around 60% of the 2021–2023 average. In addition, the scale of speculative development is returning to the lower levels seen before the boom period: the share of unleased space in projects under construction currently stands at a relatively low 39%.
DEMAND: Tenant activity on the rise
“In 2025, demand for modern industrial space exceeded 6.63 million sq m, which represents a 14% year-on-year increase and is 9% above the 2020–2024 average, when tenant activity hovered around 6.1 million sq m leased,” comments Szczepan Gowin, Head of Industrial & Logistics at Cushman & Wakefield.
Last year’s demand structure was dominated by renegotiations, which accounted for 52% of the average annual leasing transaction volume. Lease renewals led in every quarter of the year—57% in Q1, 53% in Q2, 47% in Q3, and 53% in Q4. This trend aligns with the pattern observed since the second half of 2022, with renewals rising from around 30% in 2012–2021 to 40% in 2023–2024, and expected to remain at roughly 40–50% in the coming years.
The volume of new leases and expansions from January to December totalled nearly 3.2 million sq m, with Q4 recording the highest figure—over 1 million sq m leased. As a result, the share of new contracts declined by 6% year on year, signalling a more mature market, but also limited space availability in selected locations.
“While we expect lease renegotiations to continue to have a major impact on the warehouse leasing market overall, we believe new leases will not lose importance. Growing demand for tailor-made projects and the development of new locations will also support tenant activity in this segment,” adds Szczepan Gowin.
SUPPLY: Developer activity edges up slightly
In Q4 2025, developers delivered 138,000 sq m of new warehouse space, bringing total market stock to approximately 36.6 million sq m. The largest inventories are concentrated in three provinces: Mazowieckie (7.34 million sq m), Śląskie (6.19 million sq m), and Dolnośląskie (5.31 million sq m).
At the end of Q4 2025, space under construction totalled about 1.8 million sq m, reflecting a slight rebound compared with the start of the year but still consistent with the broader downward trend—23% less than at the beginning of 2024. The share of speculative projects currently stands at 39%, which translates into 690,000 sq m of space available to lease—indicating heightened tenant interest in space still under development,” says Ewa Derlatka-Chilewicz, Head of Research at Cushman & Wakefield.
The Mazovia region remains the leader in development activity, accounting for 36% of Poland’s total construction pipeline. High activity is also visible in Pomorskie (12%), Śląskie (11%), and Łódzkie (11%). Together, these four provinces represent 70% of all space currently under development in Poland.
In Q4, developers started construction on 444,000 sq m of new industrial projects. The strongest activity was recorded in Mazowieckie, with 250,000 sq m under construction, and Łódzkie, with 97,000 sq m,” comments Zuzanna Seger, Market Analyst at Cushman & Wakefield.
In the current market environment, developers and financial institutions are approaching new warehouse investments with measured caution. Launching projects is increasingly dependent on securing leases in advance. Fully speculative developments are now rare and are mainly concentrated in selected “core” submarkets characterised by low vacancy rates,” explains Renata Krzyżanowska, Associate at Cushman & Wakefield.
VACANCY: A strong year-end, but uneven availability
In Q4 2025, available warehouse space in Poland totalled just under 2.70 million sq m, translating into a vacancy rate of 7.4%. This represents a drop of 0.8 percentage points compared with the previous quarter and a slight decline of 0.1 percentage point versus the end of 2024.
The highest vacancy rates were recorded in Świętokrzyskie (17.2%), Lubuskie (16.2%), and Lubelskie (10.9%). The lowest levels remain in regions with constrained supply—Podlaskie (0%), Opolskie (1.2%), and Zachodniopomorskie (1.2%),” adds Vitalii Arkhypenko, Market Analyst at Cushman & Wakefield.
The limited share of speculative projects should curb any further increase in vacancies, helping stabilise the market and support balance in the coming quarters.
RENTS: No change in headline rates
In Q4 2025, rent levels remained stable, with no significant market-wide changes. Greater negotiating power for tenants—primarily in the form of more attractive non-rent incentives—has been observed mainly in markets with high vacancy rates.
LABOUR MARKET
The end of 2025 in the industrial and logistics sector highlighted a very clear trend: an extreme compression of base wages.
According to market data collected by Randstad, the difference in base hourly pay between an employee performing simple work and a machine operator has shrunk to just PLN 1.05 gross per hour. This is the result of pressure to increase the minimum wage, which has pushed the valuation of basic roles close to technical positions. As a consequence, the skills premium has shifted almost entirely into variable components—operators do earn more in real terms (on average PLN 2.55 per hour), but the difference is “hidden” in bonuses and allowances rather than in base pay. This year, the recruitment process has already lengthened to an average of 3.3 months, and employees are not making hasty decisions about changing employers.
As Randstad experts emphasize, a strategy based on a low base salary and “boosting” earnings through overtime may prove insufficient for skilled staff. Operators expect their capabilities to be reflected in stable pay. If the base-pay gap between them and unskilled workers remains at the level of a “symbolic zloty,” companies risk losing key specialists to regions or employers offering a more predictable wage structure.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/rynek-magazynowy-w-polsce-w-2025-roku-popyt-14-r-r-deweloperzy-ostrozniejsi-58990
