The year 2025 brought apparent stabilisation to Poland’s warehouse and industrial real estate market following a period of rapid growth. At the same time, tenants adopted a more selective approach to expansion and relocation, while developers became more cautious when deciding whether to launch new projects. In the first quarter, total modern warehouse and industrial stock exceeded 35 million sq m, rising above 36 million sq m by the third quarter. According to Newmark Poland, by the end of 2025 total supply may approach or slightly exceed 37 million sq m. Assuming the market continues to grow at an annual rate of around 7–7.5% over the next two years, total stock could surpass 40 million sq m as early as 2027.
Market stabilisation
Despite developers’ increased caution, construction activity has remained stable. Over the past decade, quarterly volumes of warehouse and industrial space under construction have typically ranged between 1.5 and 1.8 million sq m. Forecasts suggest that this growth dynamic will continue into 2026, translating into approximately 2 million sq m of new supply. While this is more than twice less than in the record-breaking year of 2022—when 4.4 million sq m was delivered—it still represents a solid and healthy level, aligned with current demand and cost conditions.
Dominance of key regions
Notably, 2025 was another year of strong geographic concentration in development activity. Around 80% of projects under construction were located in the six largest regional markets, primarily in the Mazowieckie, Pomorskie, Śląskie, and Dolnośląskie voivodeships. At the same time, the six core regions—Mazowieckie, Śląskie, Dolnośląskie, Łódzkie, Wielkopolskie, and Pomorskie—accounted for more than 80% of new supply delivered in 2025. This trend is likely to continue into 2026, mainly due to sustained tenant interest in these key markets, which generated over 80% of total demand in 2025.
Demand and the growing role of renegotiations
Tenant activity for the whole of 2025 is estimated at around 6 million sq m, a result broadly in line with the previous year. However, the demand structure has evolved significantly, most notably through a steady increase in the share of renegotiations, which may account for as much as 60% of all lease agreements signed this year. The main demand drivers remain the continued growth of e-commerce, the expansion of last-mile logistics, and ongoing investments in road, rail, and port infrastructure. In 2026, total leasing volume may increase slightly to around 6.5 million sq m.
Modern warehouses gain the upper hand
Given limited new supply and stable tenant demand, the vacancy rate in 2026 is likely to remain at around 7–8%, although in the most sought-after locations deeper declines in vacant space may occur. The year 2026 may see a continuation of growing market polarisation. Modern facilities that meet high technological, logistical, and environmental standards are expected to maintain strong occupancy levels and stable rental rates. By contrast, owners of older warehouses in less attractive locations, with lower technical standards and higher vacancy levels, will face increasing pressure to reduce rents or offer more extensive incentive packages.
Source: https://managerplus.pl/podsumowanie-2025-roku-na-rynku-magazynowym-w-polsce-i-prognozy-na-rok-2026
