March wage data for Poland’s enterprise sector showed annual growth of 6.6%, slightly above market expectations of 6.3%. The average gross monthly salary in companies employing more than 10 people, excluding the public sector, reached PLN 9,652.19.
Although the reading came in slightly above forecasts, its structure confirms a clear trend of easing wage pressure. This is an important shift, as the labor market is gradually moving away from conditions typical of a so-called employee-driven market, which should help limit domestic sources of inflationary pressure in the coming quarters.
Until recently, wage growth was one of the main drivers of inflationary pressure, alongside expansionary fiscal policy. At present, however, the balance of risk is shifting toward external factors, above all energy commodity prices in connection with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
In this environment, the Monetary Policy Council remains in “wait and see” mode. This means that the outlook for interest rates in the coming months will largely depend both on incoming macroeconomic data and on whether the external inflationary impulse translates into a more persistent rise in prices across the domestic economy.
