In February, wage growth in the enterprise sector clearly disappointed. Salaries increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the market had expected 6.6%. The average gross salary in companies employing more than 10 people (excluding the public sector) amounted to PLN 9,135.69.
This is another signal confirming that wage pressure is steadily weakening. After a very strong 2024—when wage growth reached its highest pace in two decades—the current readings indicate a clear cooling of the labor market. In practice, this means that the wage factor is no longer a significant source of inflation concerns for the Monetary Policy Council.
At the same time, the focus in assessing inflation prospects is shifting toward external factors. In recent weeks, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have played a key role, translating into higher prices of energy commodities—primarily oil and gas—as well as a stronger US dollar.
The interest rate market has reacted quite decisively to these risks—pricing of contracts has virtually ruled out interest rate cuts in Poland this year and is gradually beginning to factor in the possibility of rate hikes.
For the future path of monetary policy, it will be crucial not only how strong any potential price shock turns out to be, but also how long current tensions persist. The coming weeks will be decisive in this regard, as they will show to what extent rising energy prices begin to translate into broader inflationary pressure.
