The Polish retail sector continues to struggle, with little sign of recovery on the horizon, according to the latest edition of the EFL Barometer for Q2 2025. The subindex for retail businesses fell to 47.9 points, down 1.2 points from the previous quarter. This marks yet another quarter below the 50-point threshold, which indicates limited growth prospects – a level the sector has failed to surpass since early 2022. None of the six other sectors surveyed have remained below this boundary for such a prolonged period.
Persistent Pessimism
A score below 50 points signals that business owners see no favorable conditions for development. Since December 2021, the retail sector has consistently failed to exceed this threshold. According to Robert Dudziński, Sales Director at Carefleet, both domestic and international factors are to blame:
“The downward trend began with the COVID-19 pandemic, and subsequent geopolitical events – the war in Ukraine, Germany’s economic slowdown, tensions between the US, China, and the EU – have prevented the retail sector from recovering. Even domestic consumption, once a growth driver, is now clearly slowing.”
Sales Expectations Continue to Decline
In Q2 2025, only 5% of retail companies expect sales to grow, while 23% anticipate a decline. By comparison, in the previous quarter, 9% projected growth and 20% expected a drop. A significant majority – 71% – foresee no major changes in sales volumes.
Conservative Outlook on Investment and Liquidity
Only 8% of retail firms plan to increase investments, while 20% are considering cutbacks. For the majority (72%), investment levels are expected to remain unchanged.
Equally bleak are the forecasts for financial liquidity – just 7% of businesses expect improvement, while a concerning 23% anticipate deterioration. This is the lowest liquidity outlook across all analyzed sectors.
Growing Demand for External Financing
The only positive signal comes from the area of external financing. 26% of businesses expect an increase in demand for such funding, compared to just 4% expecting a decrease. However, experts note that loans and leases are being used not for growth, but for sustaining daily operations – paying bills, salaries, and purchasing inventory.
Retail Lags Behind Other Sectors
Retail continues to rank lowest among all sectors surveyed in the EFL Barometer. In comparison, the main EFL Barometer index for all sectors in Q2 2025 stood at 50.6 points, a marginal drop of 0.1 point from Q1. This contrast highlights that while the broader economy faces challenges, the retail sector is particularly vulnerable to shifts in economic and social conditions.
Source: CEO.com.pl – Only 5% of Retail Companies Expect Revenue Growth, While 23% Fear Decline
