According to the latest Statistics Poland (GUS) data (published today at 10:00), retail sales at constant prices in January 2026 were 4.4% higher than a year earlier (compared with a 4.9% increase in January 2025). Compared with December 2025, retail sales fell by 17.8%.
In e-commerce, the value of online retail sales at current prices in January 2026 was 10.9% higher year-on-year, and the share of online sales in total retail sales increased from 9.1% to 9.7% (it stood at 10.1% at the end of December 2025).
The latest data are commented on below by experts from Univio, Finax, and Digitree Group.
Tomasz Gutkowski, Head of Business Development at Univio
January’s GUS figures confirm the solid condition of Polish retail—especially in e-commerce. The previously published Base Index already indicated a clear year-on-year increase in online sales, driven both by a higher number of orders and a rising average basket value. The seasonal drop versus December is a natural phenomenon after the holiday sales peak and does not signal a deterioration in business conditions.
Within the structure of online sales in January, the sports and tourism category stood out—i.e., purchases such as winter recreational clothing and equipment. This was the result of a prolonged winter season that has been strongly felt, as well as the earlier start of school holidays in some regions. At the same time, e-commerce results in the first month of the year were supported by additional holiday-related purchases, with winter breaks beginning in further regions at the start of February. As a result, due to weather and calendar effects, the sector’s seasonality was even more pronounced and had a stronger impact on demand than in previous years.
The macroeconomic environment remains moderately optimistic. As GUS reported, in February 2026 the current consumer confidence indicator (BWUK) rose by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a slight improvement in assessments of the current situation. A stronger increase is visible on a year-on-year basis: compared with February 2025, BWUK in February 2026 improved by 5.7 percentage points. At the same time, based on GUS data on expected trends in individual consumption, a deterioration in expectations about the future is noticeable.
Such a structure of consumer sentiment may support stronger current consumption, but on the other hand it may point to continued moderate caution in medium- and long-term purchasing decisions. In summary, market fundamentals at the start of the year remain solid, but the coming months will show the direction in which retail—including online sales—will develop.
Klaudia Sibielak, personal finance expert at Finax
A cautious consumer in a stabilizing economy
January brought a weakening of retail sales compared with December, which fits the typical seasonal pattern after the intense holiday period. In year-on-year terms, however, consumption remains higher, showing that demand has not faded—it is simply moving into a more moderate phase.
Looking more broadly, the labor market remains stable, though it has clearly slowed. Average wages in the enterprise sector rose by 6.1% year-on-year—slower than in December (8.6%) and below expectations. This is the weakest wage growth in nearly five years. Employment is still falling year-on-year (-0.8%), although broader labor market measures point to overall stability. Meanwhile, the slowdown in wage growth may serve as an argument for the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) in discussions on further interest-rate cuts.
The picture of the economy at the start of the year is solid, but we should remain cautious optimists. The recovery is progressing, though its pace remains uneven. In such conditions, conscious household budget management becomes increasingly important. Rising incomes should not automatically translate into higher consumption, but rather into more selective spending and a growing willingness to save.
This is a good moment to embrace financial minimalism—not radical cuts, but thoughtful prioritization of spending and limiting impulse consumption. Even small surpluses saved regularly can become investment capital. Over the long term, it is systematic saving and investing that build financial resilience and real wealth, safeguarding the future of Polish households.
Michał Kręcisz, Chief Sales Officer at INIS (Digitree Group)
In line with historical trends, January brought a seasonal correction in e-commerce performance compared with the record December period. After the intense holiday peak and numerous promotional campaigns, we recorded a decline in sales in January. It is worth noting, however, that the scale of this weakening is consistent with our forecasts for this period. At the same time, GUS data show that on a year-on-year basis the e-commerce market is maintaining solid growth momentum.
Several key factors contributed to the month-on-month drop in online sales—among them the fact that the new year is often associated with changes and New Year’s resolutions, which frequently include reducing spending and improving consumers’ financial condition. In addition, online retailers are still building their promotional strategies in January, and there are fewer promotional campaigns than in other months.
Despite the overall decline in domestic sales, the continued, systematic increase in the share of cross-border trade is very encouraging. The growing momentum in this area—both in imports and exports—remains a key pillar of our strategy and gives us strong optimism in terms of revenue diversification.
