Landlords returned to the market in January with a fresh wave of rental listings, although they will likely have to wait a bit longer for a stronger response from tenants. January is traditionally the weakest month in terms of the number of leases signed. What about rents? According to experts at GetHome.pl, prospective tenants have little reason to worry.
“It’s a seasonal pattern that the autumn-winter lull in the rental market lasts into January. Landlords flood the market with listings then, and demand typically picks up in the following months,” says Marek Wielgo, an expert at GetHome.pl.
Data from Adradar, a property-portal search engine, show that by the end of January there were around 77,000 unique apartment rental listings nationwide—18% more than at the end of last year. At the same time, the total was the same as in January last year.
In January, 33,000 listings were withdrawn from the rental market—20% fewer than in December. This may point to a seasonal drop in demand. However, it is worth remembering that listings are also removed for other reasons, such as a lack of satisfactory inquiries or a change of plans by owners who temporarily pause their decision to rent out the property. Meanwhile, 45,000 new listings appeared (+36% month on month), confirming the typical early-year increase on the supply side.
This pattern was visible in all major cities. Adradar data show that in Warsaw, the number of rental listings rose in January from 12,500 to 14,200 (+14%). In Kraków it increased from 5,500 to 6,800 (+24%); in Wrocław from 4,600 to 5,300 (+15%); in Gdańsk from 3,300 to 3,700 (+12%); in Poznań from 2,500 to 3,000 (+20%); in Łódź from 2,000 to 2,400 (+20%); and in Katowice from 1,800 to 2,000 (+11%).
Marek Wielgo notes, however, that this seasonal surge in supply was much less dramatic than a year earlier, which in theory could work against tenants. At that time, the median monthly rent—often closer to a “typical” rent level than the average—fell in Warsaw and Łódź. In Poznań the median increased, while in the other major cities it remained unchanged.
This January, by contrast, brought rent stability in almost all large cities. Wrocław was the exception—and in a way that benefited prospective tenants: the median rent there dropped by 3% compared with December.
“As you can see, weak demand effectively discourages owners from raising rents. This is most evident in Warsaw, where the median rent was PLN 4,200 in January. It was the same as a month earlier, but 7% lower than a year ago,” the GetHome.pl expert comments.
Year-on-year declines in the median rent were also recorded in Wrocław, where it fell by 3% to PLN 2,900, and in Poznań, down 4% to PLN 2,600. In Kraków and Gdańsk, the median rent held steady at PLN 3,000.
The lack of year-on-year increases across such large and diverse markets confirms that the last 12 months have seen a clear slowdown in rent growth after the sharp hikes observed earlier.
Łódź and Katowice were the only major cities where renting became more expensive year on year—up 5% to PLN 2,100 and PLN 2,200 respectively. These markets, however, have relatively small numbers of listings, making them more susceptible to local fluctuations and shifts in the supply mix.
Marek Wielgo believes there is also a chance for rent stabilization this year. Improved access to mortgages may trigger a familiar market mechanism: some tenants start to calculate whether it still makes sense to pay rent when a mortgage instalment is approaching a similar level. Better availability of financing often acts as the impulse that shifts the balance of power between the rental market and owner-occupier housing. In the biggest cities—where the rent-to-mortgage relationship is particularly sensitive to interest-rate moves—such a change in sentiment can gradually pull some tenants toward home ownership.
This does not happen overnight, but the effects accumulate: demand for rentals weakens, and landlords—especially in cities with abundant supply—have to revise their rent expectations to avoid the risk of vacancies. A similar mechanism was seen after the launch of the “Safe 2% Mortgage” support programme, when some tenants swapped rent payments for mortgage instalments on a home of their own. Now the story may repeat itself, albeit for slightly different reasons: not because of a government programme, but due to a gradual “thawing” of mortgage availability and an economic recovery that improves consumer sentiment.
