Poland’s packaging industry has managed to increase its share in the export markets of EU member states, despite the negative impact of the post-2022 economic slowdown in both Poland and the broader European Union. However, maintaining competitiveness amid weak demand and strong cost pressures has come at a price: declining margins and weaker financial performance, according to a new sector report by Bank Pekao S.A.
Poland’s Packaging Industry Felt the Downturn of 2022–2024—Yet Reinforced Its Position as a Supplier in Europe
The value of sold production in the Polish packaging industry fell by 14% between 2022 and 2024. Negative trends were recorded across all market segments. The sharpest drop—40%—occurred in wooden packaging products. But the two largest segments, paper packaging and plastic packaging, also saw deep declines of 14% and 10%, respectively. Some signs of demand recovery emerged only in the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025, though the rebound has been slow: sector revenues have been growing at only 2–3% year-on-year.
On the other hand, the decline in the value of Polish packaging exports was relatively mild. Between 2022 and 2024, exports fell by just 2% (compared with a 6% drop across the entire EU). In the key paper and plastics segments, exports even posted slight growth. As a result, Poland increased its share of total EU packaging exports, particularly in intra-EU trade, where its share rose from 11.7% to 12.2%—including a notable 2-percentage-point rise in paper packaging.
“The entire EU packaging industry faced demand weakness after 2022. In Poland, this was driven mainly by a temporary decline in domestic consumer demand and falling exports in downstream processing industries, which normally generate high demand for packaging. The growth of Poland’s share in EU packaging exports is a positive trend. It confirms the sector’s sustained competitiveness—strengthening its position in the EU even in a weaker demand environment,”
—Krzysztof Mrówczyński, Sector Analysis Manager at Bank Pekao S.A.
Gaining Ground in the EU Came at the Expense of Margins
The sector’s total financial result in 2024 was 25% lower than in 2022, and in the first half of 2025 it fell by 34% year-on-year—to the lowest first-half result since 2018. Net profitability dropped to 4.9%, the lowest level in more than a decade. Most segments recorded declines in net results, profitability indicators, and overall financial condition during the first half of 2025. The scale of the downturn, however, varied across segments. The plastics packaging segment coped relatively well with cost pressures, posting a net result similar to the previous year. The paper packaging segment performed worse, with its net profit falling by 37% year-on-year.
“Maintaining high product competitiveness in a weak demand environment limited the sector’s pricing flexibility. Combined with strong cost pressures, this deteriorated margins. Although the industry has managed to generate year-on-year revenue growth since the second half of 2024, this is not yet sufficient to offset rising costs—driven mainly by wages and material costs, which have returned to an upward trend,”
—Paweł Kowalski, Sector Analyst at Bank Pekao S.A.
Demand Conditions Will Improve, but Costs and Regulation Will Remain Major Challenges
Economic forecasts for Poland are optimistic: a recovery is underway and expected to accelerate in 2026, supported by stronger domestic demand driven by consumption and investment. Exports should improve as euro-area economies—especially Germany—return to more stable growth, aided by lower interest rates and fiscal measures.
However, cost pressures will remain a key challenge in the coming quarters. Wage growth is slowing alongside inflation, but remains high, and labor costs are significantly greater than at the start of the decade. A demand rebound, combined with developments in some raw material markets (e.g., wood), may also push material prices upward again. Energy prices for businesses remain high, with no clear prospects for significant reductions.
Regulatory uncertainty will also pose challenges in the years ahead.
“After many years of preparation, the deposit-return system has finally begun operating, but it remains in the early operational phase. Its real efficiency, return rates, and impact on raw materials markets and business costs will only become clear after several quarters of stable functioning.
An even greater challenge may be the full implementation of the EU’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR), which significantly raises requirements for recycled content, packaging design, and waste reduction. This new regulatory ecosystem tightens supply-side conditions—forcing investments in sorting and recycling technologies, adjustments to production processes, and changes to packaging portfolios. For companies, this means organizational, technological, and cost challenges. As a result, uncertainty grows and business models must be continuously adapted to rapidly evolving regulations,”
—Ewa Kurek, ESG Analyst at Bank Pekao S.A.
A gradual improvement in demand conditions should support sales growth and increase pricing flexibility in 2026, potentially offsetting part of the cost pressure and helping reverse some of the negative financial trends. However, the accumulation of cost factors limits the potential for margin improvement, which is expected to be moderate at best. At the same time, the sector’s strong competitiveness should continue to provide opportunities to strengthen its position in the EU market—although success will depend heavily on adapting products to new regulatory requirements. This will be crucial for securing a strong foothold in the rapidly growing sustainable packaging segment in Europe and globally.
The report “Maintaining Advantages at the Expense of Margins: Poland’s Packaging Sector Amid Europe’s Slowdown and Labor Market Challenges” was prepared by analysts from the Department of Macroeconomic Analysis at Bank Pekao S.A.: Paweł Kowalski, Krzysztof Mrówczyński, and Ewa Kurek.
Source:
https://ceo.com.pl/polski-sektor-opakowan-traci-marze-ale-wzmacnia-pozycje-w-ue-67004
