Data for October 2025, published by the Związek Przedsiębiorstw Finansowych and CRIF, show the non-bank lending market entering a phase of stable yet selective growth. A 2.6% month-on-month increase in the value of loans granted and a 3.4% rise in the number of obligations confirm that demand for short-term financing remains resilient, despite relatively restrictive lending conditions. At the same time, a declining share of new customers and a high rejection rate indicate a maturing market that increasingly relies on returning, well-known borrowers. These trends form the basis for forecasts for 2026.
Over the coming months, the macroeconomic environment will be decisive. Expected gradual monetary easing, combined with persistent cost pressures on households, may support moderate growth in the value of the non-bank lending market. However, a dynamic expansion in volumes is unlikely. The pace of growth is expected to mirror the second half of 2025 and remain concentrated on small ticket loans that meet day-to-day liquidity needs.
The average loan amount, hovering around PLN 4,300, clearly illustrates the role this sector plays in personal finances. “In 2026, this level is likely to persist, as demand is driven mainly by financing unexpected expenses rather than long-term consumer commitments. The fact that the amount remains well below the average gross salary suggests that non-bank loans will continue to be treated as a supplement to household budgets, not a permanent source of financing,” says Marta Fila, Management Board Member at AIQLabs.
A key trend will be the continued tightening of risk-assessment policies. Persistently high rejection rates show that responsible lending has moved beyond declarations to become a market standard. In 2026, further development of advanced scoring models—drawing on broad datasets and behavioral analytics—can be expected. While this will limit access to financing for the riskiest customers, it will also enable better product matching to the genuine repayment capacity of others.
Regulatory changes and rising consumer awareness will further professionalize the sector. The market will become more predictable, and competition will shift away from aggressive sales toward service quality, transparency of terms, and long-term customer relationships. In this context, 2026 is likely to consolidate trends already visible today rather than mark a period of abrupt disruption, Marta Fila concludes.
Overall, forecasts for the non-bank lending market in 2026 point to steady development based on moderate growth, small loan amounts, and the growing importance of responsible creditworthiness assessment. It will be an increasingly mature market, embedded in everyday financial needs, sensitive to macroeconomic changes, yet grounded in experience and data that allow for a better understanding of borrower behavior.
Source: managerplus.pl
