As expected by the majority of analysts, Poland’s Monetary Policy Council (Rada Polityki Pieniężnej, MPC) has decided to leave interest rates unchanged.
This decision is supported by several key considerations.
First, the MPC delivered a substantial number of rate cuts in the previous year—including reductions in November and December—and it is reasonable to pause and observe the effects of those measures on the economy.
Second, the beginning of the year is a “sensitive” period for inflation, as the CPI basket calculated by Statistics Poland (Główny Urząd Statystyczny, GUS) is revised. It is therefore prudent to assess the new CPI weights and inflation recalculated under those weights. Additional insight will come from the scale of any “from-the-new-year” retail price increases, which will be reflected in first-quarter CPI data.
Third, the Council may prefer to wait for the publication of the March inflation projection, which will incorporate new factors—most notably the markedly lower current inflation level compared with assumptions in the previous projection—before making further decisions.
Finally, the international backdrop also matters. Heightened geopolitical tensions globally, particularly in relation to recent developments in Iran, argue for caution. Cutting rates in such an environment would be a risky move.
As a result, interest rates are likely to remain unchanged until March, when the Council could consider another cut—provided that inflation developments by then, and above all the Inflation Projection published at that time, offer sufficient justification.
Dr. Marcin Mrowiec is an economist and macroeconomic adviser with more than two decades of experience analyzing economic processes and their impact on business and financial decision-making. For many years he was associated with the banking sector, where he was responsible for interpreting macroeconomic and sectoral trends and assessing risks for financial institutions and companies.
He holds a PhD in economics from the Krakow University of Economics (Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie). He also gained academic experience as a lecturer at the Jagiellonian University (Uniwersytet Jagielloński) and Warsaw University of Technology (Politechnika Warszawska), combining academic work with market practice.
He currently serves as Minister of the Economy in the Economic Shadow Cabinet of the Business Centre Club (Business Centre Club, BCC).
