By 2030, the modular construction market is expected to reach a value of 7 billion PLN, according to Spectis. This year and the next will be particularly favorable for the sector due to a significant influx of funds from the National Reconstruction Plan (KPO), which has time constraints for spending. Cost and time pressures, along with openness to new technologies, may encourage both individual and institutional investors to turn to modular buildings.
“Modular construction is becoming a prominent feature in the real estate market. Even during an economic downturn in the residential sector, modular construction performed much better than the broader development sector or traditional single-family homes,” says Bartłomiej Sosna, a real estate market expert at Spectis, in an interview with Newseria Biznes.
Spectis’ report reveals that after a temporary slowdown in 2023, the total revenue of the 100 largest manufacturers of prefabricated buildings made from wood, steel, concrete, and expanded clay concrete amounted to 9.9 billion PLN, with nearly half (4.8 billion PLN) coming from the modular buildings segment. Preliminary data for 2024 indicated a more than 4% growth to 5.1 billion PLN. Increased interest in modular technologies is visible among both individual investors and institutional players, such as hotel chains, residential developers, and government and municipal institutions that generate demand for larger buildings.
“Currently, we have three main technologies to choose from: concrete prefabrication, wooden construction, or steel construction. These technologies don’t necessarily compete strongly against each other, as this is a small, continuously growing market. Manufacturers don’t need to fight over market share as much as they need to work together to expand the market. Right now, modular construction accounts for only a small percentage of single-family homes, but the long-term potential is very large,” evaluates Bartłomiej Sosna.
Spectis analysts predict that 2025 will bring further dynamic growth for the market, driven by a recovery in the housing construction sector, as well as investments from the KPO, which include support for the construction sector and investments in ecological, modern, and energy-efficient solutions.
“However, this will have a short-term impact, as there isn’t much time left until 2026. Yet, the completion of a few successful, high-profile modular construction projects will certainly contribute to a positive public relations and marketing boost for this technology,” emphasizes the Spectis expert. “We expect that the anticipated interest rate cuts will encourage more individual investors to begin planned housing investments in single-family homes, which may have been partially delayed. To save time and effort during construction, we anticipate that more investors will turn to modular construction.”
According to Spectis’ estimates, the market value will increase to 7 billion PLN by 2030. Growing interest from individual and institutional investors is influenced by factors such as openness to new technologies and pressure for efficiency in construction processes, including cost and time pressures. The market is also developing on the supply side – there is an increasing production capacity and a wider range of prefabrication technologies. As Spectis points out, there is significant demand for modular buildings produced in Poland on the European market, although exports do not dominate the sales structure.
“Currently, most of the market and demand for these materials is domestic. The export segment accounts for around 20-30%, with Germany, Austria, and particularly Scandinavia being the main buyers,” says Bartłomiej Sosna. “We forecast that the export share will remain relatively stable. Due to exchange rate differences and rising labor costs in Poland, some aspects of this export market are becoming less attractive to domestic producers. However, we see a strong rise in domestic demand. In fact, we are witnessing a shift among some modular home producers, who were initially more focused on foreign markets, but are now increasingly turning their attention to the Polish market.”
