Demand for skills points to the need to retain employees of retirement age, but also to the necessity for companies to invest in reskilling and upskilling.
Since 2020, following futurist Jamais Cascio, the concept of the BANI world—brittle, anxious, non-linear and incomprehensible—has been increasingly discussed. It describes a reality that is unstable, overloaded with data and information, far removed from previous logic, and therefore difficult to predict. Does this also apply to the labour market? Is it becoming less stable and thus harder to manage, both at the level of entire economies and individual enterprises?
Looking at the results of the seventh edition of the “HR Analytics Study,” one might conclude that HR departments continue operating in a “business as usual” mode. There is little visible concern about the consequences of irreversible demographic processes, geopolitical shifts and their impact on labour markets, or the pace of technological change (although in this last area, some awareness is noticeable). According to the study, HR departments are expected to focus on key strategic goals for 2026 such as developing compensation strategies (43.6%), recruitment (25.7%) and onboarding (17.1%), internal communication (20.3%), and employer branding (16.1%).
When it comes to the use of HR data, employees are expected to provide it to management (50.1%), but above all to produce ad hoc reports and charts (66.1%), as well as regular summaries and presentations (63.7%).
Perhaps it is beneficial that, through such an approach, HR departments serve as an anchor in these BANI times. Or perhaps, in an era of increasing uncertainty, volatility and the growing importance of data, HR should not be limited to a technical role, but should actively inspire change across most areas of business operations. After all, the transformations observed in the labour market reflect not only demographic and technological shifts, but also broader changes in the economy, industries, competitors and even global dynamics.
Looking at Poland’s labour market in 2025, it is clear that HR departments—given the scope of their responsibilities outlined in the study—had plenty to deal with. In companies employing ten or more people, employment declined slightly (by 0.9% year-on-year). At the same time, wages increased significantly—by more than 8% year-on-year (according to Statistics Poland). This combination indicates that companies were facing structural mismatches in the labour market and shortages of workers with the required qualifications.
The beginning of 2026 continues this trend: employment is decreasing while wages are still rising, although at a slower pace of around 6%. It is therefore no surprise that the most important HR objective for 2026 (43.6%) is to develop or revise compensation strategies. It is also unsurprising that, in business sentiment surveys conducted by GUS, employers identify labour costs as the main factor driving overall cost increases (around 80% of firms).
Following the outbreak of the US–Israel–Iran conflict, rising oil and gas prices have added to the already high cost of labour. This will make the development or adjustment of compensation strategies even more challenging.
What, then, can we expect for the labour market throughout 2026? The study indicates that one-third of companies plan to reduce new hiring, while 27% anticipate layoffs.
To some extent—also due to regulatory factors—this trend is already visible in unemployment data. At the beginning of 2026, unemployment rose to over 6%, with nearly one million people registered at labour offices. At the same time, in economic sentiment surveys, businesses continue to point to difficulties in hiring workers as a significant barrier to investment—particularly in construction, hospitality and transport. This confirms that structural mismatches in the labour market are likely to persist.
A key question is whether part of the solution lies in companies becoming more open to retaining employees who are reaching retirement age. This trend is already gaining traction: in the fourth quarter of 2025, such employees accounted for 5% of total employment, according to GUS. This presents both an opportunity and a challenge for companies and HR departments—how to equip these experienced workers with additional competencies, particularly digital skills.
Another important aspect of labour market changes is the relatively high share of foreign workers. According to Social Insurance Institution, they already account for nearly 7% of total employment, and their number is expected to grow further this year. Companies that have not yet done so will need to address not only administrative procedures for hiring foreign workers, but also their integration into organisational and cultural structures, including overcoming language barriers.
There are many ongoing and anticipated changes in the labour market. Demand for skills clearly indicates the need to open up to retaining workers aged 60/65+, while also accelerating efforts in reskilling and upskilling.
One more interesting aspect deserves attention. In technologically advanced companies, there is a growing trend of seeking specialists outside Poland and offering very high salaries—often in remote work arrangements—to attract them. This clearly shows that companies do not have time to wait for the education system to adapt to labour market needs. While reskilling and upskilling are being implemented, they take time and are not always effective. As a result, companies are turning to alternative solutions. This creates a new and important task for HR departments: analysing and identifying the best option for the organisation.
As we can see, the BANI world brings not only challenges, but also intriguing opportunities.
Author: dr Małgorzata Starczewska-Krzysztoszek – member of the Polish Economic Society.
