According to data from the Ministry of Family and Social Policy, the number of registered unemployed reached 866,000 people — 10,000 more than a month earlier and nearly 100,000 more year-on-year. The unemployment rate climbed to 5.6%, the highest level since February 2023. At first glance, this might suggest a deterioration in labour market conditions — but experts caution that much of the increase is the result of a new labour market law taking effect.
Since mid-year, labour offices are no longer allowed to deregister individuals who refuse to participate in activation programmes, and the online registration process has been significantly simplified. In practice, this means that many economically inactive individuals — or those not seriously seeking employment — are now registering, which inflates the unemployment statistics without necessarily worsening real labour market conditions. That said, some of the underlying changes are structural rather than merely statistical.
The biggest concern: a sharp slowdown in job creation
The most alarming data point is the number of new job offers. In September, employers submitted just 30,500 vacancies to public employment offices — only slightly more than in August (29,800), but far below the more than 51,000 reported a year earlier. This is one of the weakest readings in the past 15 years.
Statistics from GUS show that most companies intend to maintain current employment levels, while only a small percentage plans to increase hiring. What we are seeing is not a market crash, but rather a phase of pronounced caution.
Seasonal slowdown — with structural elements emerging
Some of the change is seasonal — the end of the agricultural, construction and tourism peak season typically leads to increased registrations. However, the magnitude of the shift this time suggests the labour market is entering a more structural cooling phase.
Declining job offers, slowing employment growth and the rising number of passively registered unemployed all indicate that — after years of overheating — Poland is entering a phase of normalization and equilibrium, perhaps for the first time since the pandemic.
No wave of layoffs — but hiring momentum is clearly slowing
There is no evidence yet of mass layoffs or panic among employers. Companies are currently focused on stabilization rather than expansion. However, new recruitment activity is decisively slowing, which may signal a more challenging autumn-winter period for those actively looking for jobs.
A labour market that until recently was strongly favouring employees is now becoming increasingly demanding in both directions — for employers and candidates alike.
Source: https://ceo.com.pl/rynek-pracy-traci-impet-rejestr-bezrobotnych-rosnie-rekrutacje-zwalniaja-85002
