The biggest change in Poland’s land market in years is approaching. Spatial planning reform will mean that plots previously regarded as attractive may lose value, while land with a clearly defined designation will gain a competitive advantage. The success of an investment is now determined not only by the location and price of a land property, but above all by the predictability of the planning process and access to infrastructure and utilities.
“The investment land market is entering a phase of clear selection, in which land with predictable development potential is gaining an advantage,” says Emil Domeracki, Partner and Board Member, Land Development Advisory at Walter Herz.
Residential land: selection, not sell-off
The market for residential development land is at a turning point. In the context of the upcoming entry into force of new general plans, investors and developers are analysing which properties will retain their investment potential and which may lose it. The planning reform will affect both land valuations and the availability of sites for new projects.
Plots covered by local spatial development plans or those with zoning decisions are currently attracting the greatest interest. At the same time, land whose status remains uncertain is difficult to sell. After general plans are adopted, the supply of land that previously had limited residential development potential may increase in some municipalities if draft plans assign such potential to those areas.
However, the general plan itself, especially at the draft stage, does not yet determine the final designation of a property. Such land cannot be treated as fully planning-ready, and it is not justified to value it at the level of plots with a regulated planning status. The final investment possibilities will result only from zoning decisions, local plans or integrated investment plans, including the costs of accompanying infrastructure, which in many cities are still not clearly defined.
After years of rapid increases in residential land prices, the market slowed down in the second half of last year. Smaller development companies began selling some projects due to the market slowdown and uncertainty surrounding the reform. Despite this, prices in the largest cities continued to rise. In 2025, residential land in Warsaw, Wrocław and Poznań became more expensive by several dozen percent, while in Kraków and Gdańsk the pace of growth was slightly lower. Record valuations were recorded for land intended for multi-family housing in Warsaw, Kraków and the Tri-City. In the most prestigious locations in the capital, transaction prices exceeded several thousand zlotys per square metre of usable residential floor area, and the cost of land accounted for up to one quarter of the apartment price.
“We are not seeing a sell-off of land for residential projects, but rather growing stratification in this segment. Land in good locations, with a predictable planning path, is still gaining in value, while properties with unclear status are being increasingly discounted. Significant changes may occur after general plans come into force. At the same time, the largest cities are struggling with a shortage of attractive investment sites, and available land is becoming increasingly expensive and more demanding in formal, environmental and infrastructure terms,” notes Emil Domeracki.
“If the planning reform limits the number of plots enabling the development of multi-family housing projects, it will support further price growth in the long term. Plots with ready building permits may become a scarce commodity,” he adds.
At the same time, the conversion of office, retail and other types of properties into residential use remains an important market trend. Recently, many sites for residential development have been acquired precisely through this process.
Security of investment processes comes first
The planning reform has not stopped transaction activity, but it has changed its nature. Investors are focusing on land that provides a high level of security and predictability in the investment process. The land sector is currently experiencing a particularly interesting period, in which weaker market conditions are not translating into price declines, demonstrating the special resilience of land assets.
After the price correction in 2023–2024, the investment land market has stabilised, and prices remain resistant to the economic cycle, partly due to the limited supply of plots with a regulated planning situation. Uncertainty regarding the future designation of some properties is causing them to be temporarily withdrawn from the market.
“General plans will organise the investment land market, but they will not significantly increase its stock. They will more clearly indicate the areas where investment is possible. Investors will know clearly what parameters they can obtain in a zoning decision, which until now has sometimes come as a surprise,” explains Emil Domeracki.
Market transparency is also expected to improve thanks to the Urban Register. The system will include, among other things, planning documents, administrative decisions, reports from public consultations and decisions issued by supervisory authorities. After its introduction, a new electronic service is planned: the e-Extract from the General Plan, enabling users to obtain an extract and map excerpt from a municipality’s general plan online.
Retail sector dominated by retail parks
The retail land market is being driven by the development of retail parks and convenience centres. The greatest interest is focused on plots of 1–2 hectares in smaller towns, with good visibility and direct access to national and regional roads. Investors have recently been actively searching for such plots in towns with populations of several tens of thousands.
New retail space supply in Poland currently comes almost exclusively from this segment and amounts to nearly 500,000 square metres annually. At the same time, there is virtually no demand for land for large shopping centres, which only a few years ago were delivering a similar amount of new space each year.
Land prices remain stable, but competition for attractive locations is high. In the centres of the largest cities, land costs may reach PLN 5,000 per square metre of GLA. On the outskirts of the Warsaw agglomeration, prices range from PLN 1,500 to PLN 2,000 per square metre of GLA. In regional cities, they range from PLN 800 to PLN 1,800, while in towns with fewer than 100,000 residents that are not part of large agglomerations, they can be up to half as low.
Office activity limited to central Warsaw
The office segment remains the weakest link in the investment land market. Around 420,000 square metres of modern office space is currently under construction in Poland, of which around 200,000 square metres is located in Warsaw. Only a few years ago, 1.8 million square metres of office space was under construction across the country.
Changes in the labour market, rising financing costs and higher office construction costs are affecting developers’ decisions regarding the acquisition of land for new projects. High vacancy levels in regional markets are effectively limiting interest in land purchases. The exception is Warsaw’s strict city centre, where high demand for top-class office space continues amid very limited supply, leading to the implementation of further projects.
Warehouses: limited new supply with rising tenant activity
After several years of dynamic growth, the logistics land market has entered a stabilisation phase. Lower development activity results from a more cautious approach by banks, a reduction in speculative projects and the adjustment of supply to current demand.
Despite a decline in new supply, land prices remain stable or are rising. Growing interest in new warehouse and production investments supports land valuations, especially in the so-called Big Six regions.
The growing nearshoring trend is also increasing demand for land for Build-to-Own projects in the manufacturing sector, particularly in western and southern Poland. At the same time, investors are facing a prolonged process of obtaining environmental decisions, which takes an average of 12 months and, where an environmental report is required, even 18 months. Access to electricity is also becoming an increasingly important challenge.
Infrastructure as a new source of value
In the commercial land market, access to infrastructure is becoming as important as location. The availability of electricity and telecommunications infrastructure is gaining particular importance, driven by the rapid development of data centres, energy storage facilities and projects related to artificial intelligence.
Energy storage investments are becoming increasingly significant. Such installations require smaller plots of land, but they must be located close to energy infrastructure, ideally in the immediate vicinity of main power supply points.
The Polish data centre market currently has potential of 200–300 MW and may double in scale within a few years. Around 80% of the market is concentrated in the Warsaw agglomeration, which will remain the leader. However, energy limitations are prompting investors to also analyse regional locations. The greatest value is being gained by land with high grid connection capacity and secured connection conditions.
Poland already accounts for more than one third of data centre capacity in Central and Eastern Europe and has the potential to become an alternative to such European hubs as Frankfurt, Dublin or Amsterdam. However, further development depends on investment in energy infrastructure and the streamlining of administrative procedures.
Land as an investment process, not just an asset
“The investment land market is entering a new phase, in which the value of a property is determined not only by its location, but above all by the predictability of the investment process. Planning issues, access to infrastructure, the efficiency of administrative procedures and the compatibility of a project with the development directions of the municipality are now becoming crucial. Investors are increasingly valuing not the land itself, but the possibility of effectively carrying out an investment and the risks associated with it. The ability to deliver a project within the assumed time and budget is becoming one of the main factors influencing the value of land assets,” says Emil Domeracki.
“The planning reform is accelerating the professionalisation of the market. Traditional assessment criteria, such as purchase price, development potential or expected rate of return, remain important, but they are no longer sufficient. Land analysis today must also include the stability of the regulatory environment, the timetable of administrative procedures, the availability of utilities and connection capacity, transport accessibility, and potential environmental and social risks. In practice, this means moving away from an assessment based solely on property parameters towards a comprehensive analysis of investment feasibility. We are currently carrying out several projects based on this analytical model, including in Warsaw and Gdańsk. One of them, involving the transformation of an industrial site into residential development, is already nearing completion,” says the Walter Herz expert.
Source: Managerplus.pl
