Consumer inflation in Poland accelerated to 3.4% year on year in August 2026, according to a flash estimate from Statistics Poland. The result was higher than the market consensus of around 3.1%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices increased by 0.4%. Fuel prices were the standout factor, rising 24.2% from a year earlier and 5.2% compared with July.
The August reading marks a further acceleration from 3.0% year on year in July.
CPI inflation is now very close to the upper limit of the National Bank of Poland’s inflation target range, which stands at 3.5%.
However, the structure of the data does not suggest that prices are rising uniformly across the economy. Food prices are still lower than a year ago, while the strongest upward pressure is coming from fuel and energy.
Key inflation data for August 2026
- CPI inflation: +3.4% year on year and +0.4% month on month
- food and non-alcoholic beverages: -0.9% year on year and -0.7% month on month
- electricity, gas and other fuels: +4.1% year on year and +0.3% month on month
- fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment: +24.2% year on year and +5.2% month on month
Inflation at 3.4% — above market expectations
The 3.4% annual reading was higher than the market consensus of approximately 3.1%.
mBank economists point to three factors that may explain the upside surprise: a modest increase in core inflation, a larger-than-expected rise in fuel prices, and stronger increases in energy and heating costs.
According to mBank’s preliminary estimate, core inflation may have increased from 3.1% to around 3.2%.
A more detailed breakdown will only become available when Statistics Poland publishes the full inflation report.
The bank also notes that transport and education services may be among the categories worth watching in the detailed figures.
Which prices increased the most?
| Category | Year on year | Month on month |
|---|---|---|
| CPI overall | +3.4% | +0.4% |
| Food and non-alcoholic beverages | -0.9% | -0.7% |
| Electricity, gas and other fuels | +4.1% | +0.3% |
| Fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment | +24.2% | +5.2% |
Source: Statistics Poland. The flash estimate is preliminary and may be revised. From 2026, Poland’s CPI is calculated using the COICOP 2018 classification.
Inflation has accelerated again in recent months
The lowest inflation reading so far this year was 2.1% in January and February.
In subsequent months, inflation returned to around 3%. After temporarily slowing to 2.5% in June, CPI accelerated to 3.0% in July and then to 3.4% in August.
The latest data therefore point to renewed upward pressure on headline inflation after the temporary moderation seen earlier in the summer.
Fuel prices are more than 24% higher than a year ago
Fuel prices are the most striking component of the August data.
According to Statistics Poland, fuels and lubricants for personal transport equipment were 24.2% more expensive than a year earlier and 5.2% more expensive than in July.
Such a large increase has a significant impact on headline CPI and raises transport costs for both households and businesses.
At the same time, food and non-alcoholic beverages were 0.9% cheaper than a year ago.
This remains an important factor limiting overall inflation.
Prices of electricity, gas and other fuels increased by 4.1% year on year and 0.3% month on month.
The 3.4% inflation reading does not yet indicate a return of broad-based inflationary pressure. The data show a particularly strong impact from fuel prices, while food remains cheaper than a year earlier.
For the Monetary Policy Council, however, the combination of rising headline CPI and signs of a modest increase in core inflation is less comfortable. If higher fuel and energy costs begin to feed through into services and other goods, the scope for rapid interest-rate cuts could narrow.
mBank: inflation could exceed 4% by the end of the year
mBank economists believe the latest figures increase the risk that inflation will move slightly above the upper end of the central bank’s target range in September and October.
They continue to expect the current inflation wave to peak towards the end of the year, when CPI could rise slightly above 4%.
“The latest readings increase the risk of inflation slightly overshooting the upper end of the target range in September and October. We still expect inflation to peak around the end of the year, with readings likely to move slightly above 4%,” mBank economists said.
Inflation is just below the upper end of the NBP target range
| Reference level | CPI |
|---|---|
| Inflation — August 2026 | 3.4% |
| Upper limit of NBP target range | 3.5% |
| mBank’s projected year-end peak | above 4.0% |
For now, inflation therefore remains within the National Bank of Poland’s target range, but it is only 0.1 percentage point below the upper boundary.
The next few months will show whether the latest increase in CPI remains primarily a fuel- and energy-driven phenomenon or whether price pressure begins to spread more visibly into core inflation.
That distinction will be important for the Monetary Policy Council. A temporary increase driven mainly by volatile energy components would have different implications for interest-rate policy than a broader acceleration in services and underlying inflation.
If core inflation continues to edge higher while fuel and energy prices remain elevated, policymakers may become more cautious about the timing and pace of further monetary easing.
Sources: Statistics Poland, flash estimate of CPI for August 2026; commentary by mBank economists.
